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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

CNN Boldly declares Clinton winner in WV
Posted by: McQ
 
With zero precincts reporting and zero votes counted, WV has been declared "Clinton Country" by CNN.

The only question remaining is how large a margin she'll achieve.

ABC reports:
Racially motivated voting ran somewhat higher than elsewhere: In preliminary exit poll results, two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi.
Reports MSNBC:
The overwhelming majority of West Virginia Democratic primary voters today were white and 4% were African American.

Clinton won the white vote by 68% to 28%

[...]

She won white women by 74% to 24%, and most white men by, 63% to 33%.
One more time, in case you missed it, that's the Democratic primary we're talking about here. You know, the primary with Democrats voting?
 

Permalink | Comments ( 1 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
Intel’s International Science and Engineering Fair
Posted by: McQ
 
I'm stoked about Thursday.

I've been invited to attend and cover the International Science and Engineering Fair (ISEF) taking place here in Atlanta. Sponsored by Intel, it is the science and engineering fair for high school students with over 1500 participants from almost 50 countries setting up their projects as we speak. They're all finalists who've worked their way through various state, regional and national fairs to get to what many describe as the "Superbowl" of science and engineering fairs.

This is truly the big-time for these students - more than $4 million in scholarships, tuition grants, scientific equipment and trips is up for grabs.

Obviously, then, we're not talking about "how a volcano works" type projects. The titles of a couple projects may give you an idea of the level of scientific sophistication on display there. "A Study on the Neuroprotective properties of Epigallocatechin-3-Gallate (EGCG) in Relation to P25-Activated Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 5 (Cdk5): Implications for Alzheimer's Disease" presented by a 16 year old in the Biochemistry division. In the Chemistry division, "Evaluating Fumed Silica Composite Polymer Electrolytes on the Efficiency and Surface Chemistry of a Solid-State Battery at the Nanoparticle Level". There's also an engineering side to all of this. A couple of 18 year olds are presenting "Engineering a Modular Infrared Tracking Sensor for Use with the Foster-Miller TALON, a Man-Portable Reconnaissance Robot".

Naturally, college and university recruiters are well represented. Landing just about any of these young men or women would be a coup. And, contrary to popular stereotype that says science and engineering are men's fields, women are well represented here. 48% of the participants are female.

So Thursday, I'll be blogging from the ISEF, touring the projects and talking to the young men and women who've put them together. I'm sure I'll be totally amazed at their accomplishments (about 20% of the participants have patents or patents pending on their research). I'm also sure that 75% of it, ok 95% of it, will be over my head. But I promise to have them to explain all of it in terms even an old guy can understand.

My thanks to Intel for the opportunity.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 3 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Blogging

 
QandO
 
The Minimum Wage and Moral Hazards
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
I agree with Megan McArdle's point about the minimum wage; it is bad policy, because it is very inefficient, poorly targeted, and places the burden for social welfare in the labor market on the people most likely to hire low-skill workers. On the other hand, any "unemployment effect [due to] US-sized changes in the minimum wage is too small to be detected amidst statistical noise." [More good points here on the impact of elasticity over the short and long term]

However, I would add a point to this comment...
[T]he suggestion has been made that the minimum wage is really swell because it gets rid of low-productivity jobs that only pay the minimum wage. This sounds lovely—if you are the kind of person who has the skills to get one of the higher productivity jobs. Not so great if you're a high-school dropout with no appreciable credentials. In effect what you're talking about is a massive transfer from the weakest members of society.
There is also a cross-elasticity moral hazard to consider here. If jobs for low- and un-skilled workers suddenly begin paying appreciably more, then low- and un-skilled workers will find those jobs more enticing relative to their alternatives. What is a primary alternative to entry-level jobs for low- and un-skilled workers? Education.

So, a legislated increase in the minimum wage makes low- and un-skilled workers more likely to drop out of school and forgo educational opportunities. More efficient, direct social welfare programs would not necessarily require that kind of an either/or choice.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 14 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Economics

 
QandO
 
Inflation, the dollar and the future
Posted by: McQ
 
According to the IMF, inflation is raising its ugly head and is a threat to world-wide economic stability:
``This inflation speed-up must be taken seriously as it creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability,'' John Lipsky, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said ... A return to 1970s- style high inflation and rising price expectations ``cannot be discarded out of hand,'' he said.
The problem is being tied to the upsurge in both energy and commodity prices, such as corn and soybeans. And of course, none of that is helped by the declining dollar:
IMF research indicates that if the dollar hadn't fallen from 2002 to 2007, oil prices would be $25 a barrel lower. Crude oil futures surpassed $120 a barrel this week for the first time. Commodity prices excluding fuel would be 12 percent lower, Lipsky said.

Middle East and Asian countries that keep their currencies linked to the dollar are seeing inflation pressures worsen as a result, Lipsky said.

``In the euro area, the sharp rise in inflation and concerns about potential deterioration in inflation expectations are dampening consumer confidence and spending,'' he said. ``The inflation outlook appropriately is central to the ECB's policy considerations.''

[...]

Crude oil prices have almost doubled in the past 12 months and commodities including corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have all reached records this year. In the U.S., consumer prices climbed 4 percent in March from a year before, up from a 2.8 percent rate in March 2007. Inflation in the 15-nation euro region accelerated to 3.6 percent two months ago, the fastest in almost 16 years.
Part, but certainly not all of the problem in the commodities market has been driven by various government decisions to subsidize ethanol made from these commodities. Thankfully, some are now reconsidering those decisions.
``Inflation rates are expected to remain high for a rather protracted period of time before gradually declining again,'' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference in Athens today.

Fed officials anticipate that slowing U.S. economic growth and rising unemployment will help curb inflation. Policy makers last week signaled they're ready for a pause in cutting rates after seven reductions since September.
Not a particularly appetizing remedy for inflation, but certainly probable in terms of the US economy. But then also off in the wings a bit is the worry of stagflation.

All-in-all, it would seem we're in for a bit of a bumpy economic ride, at least for the short-term.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 1 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Economics

 
QandO
 
Bobby Jindal
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
Intellectuals and libertarians haven't had a lot of good things to say about many current Republican politicians (for good reasons, I think), so I'm heartened to see that Megan McArdle was impressed by Bobby Jindal...
I saw Bobby Jindal talk last week at the National Press Club. He's being widely touted as McCain's potential running mate, though I agree with Ross that this would be a mistake—for Jindal. No one should run for office this year as a Republican who doesn't have to.

Mostly I was incredibly impressed. He looks like the president of the high school chess club, so it's something of a shock to my elitist coastal ears to hear a rich good-old-boy southern accent issuing from him. But he's a hell of a talker, and most of what he says actually makes sense.
She goes on to point out his very significant accomplishments in Louisiana.

Frankly, we need more of that. The Right has plenty of politicians who can hit the limited government, accountability, reform cliches, but we have a distinct lack of Republican politicians who know how to turn those cliches into actual limited government, accountability and reform.

ADDING: The Right needs more Bill Buckley Republicans and fewer Boss Hogg Republicans. Bobby Jindal is a promising step in the right direction.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 4 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Politics

 
QandO
 
The "experience factor"
Posted by: McQ
 
Dan McLaughlin writes a rather long but interesting article that explores the "experience factor" and its importance. You need to read it all.

He outlines the type experience, the level of experience and the amount of experience most reasonable people would desire a presidential candidate should before assuming the most difficult and complex political job in the world.

He then applies it to Barack Obama and concludes:
He's never run anything at all, not even a small law practice like John Edwards. Besides his campaign, probably the biggest thing he's ever run was the Harvard Law Review.

He has nothing resembling national security experience or even particularly sustained advocacy on the issue before announcing his candidacy in 2007. The man has apparently hardly even traveled to Europe, to pick one example.

He is running in a contested election outside the insular world of Chicago politics for the first time and has never had any sort of responsibility for political leadership.

He's never served in the military and seems to have scarcely any experience even knowing people who served in the military.

His private-sector business background is negligible.

Are any of these things disqualifying from the Presidency? No. But electing a man who is so seriously lacking in all of them is indeed unprecedented. And that is and should be a central issue in this campaign.
The "experience factor" is the most potent weapon the Republicans have to wield against an Obama candidacy. Sure there will be other factors which work against him as well, but in this age of terrorism and uncertainty (to include economic uncertainty), his lack of experience in just about every sphere should scare voters to death.

Obama's dazzle factor has, to this point, pretty well hidden his experience deficit. Now is the time to begin to bring out that deficit.

The issue of experience is one Reps should begin to hammer now and continue to hammer through November. Obama will, of course try to answer those sorts of questions and his answers may provide even more avenues of attack. The sense of uneasiness that the MSM tells us pervades the US citizenry isn't going to be calmed by someone whose primary claim to fame is a few years in politics and being a great speaker.

If handled properly and exploited consistently, this is the issue which could win the presidency for the Republicans - especially if all 57 states are allowed to vote.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 22 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
WaPo laments racist incidents during campaign
Posted by: McQ
 
In a long article, the Washington Post today talks about the alleged racism the Obama campaign encounters on a daily basis.

When you read the article however, it is mostly a collection of anecdotes, heresay (a student says he heard about racial epithets being used) and history (Kokomo was a center for Klan activity - in 1923). That's not to say I don't believe that there are racists or there haven't been incidents founded in racism during the 15 months of the Democratic primary. And I again want to emphasize this for everyone to understand - Democratic primary.

However, when it comes down to actually putting names to the incidents, only three anecdotes do that - and they're all about Clinton supporters. That is to say, Democrats:
In a letter to the editor published in a local paper, Tunkhannock Borough Mayor Norm Ball explained his support of Hillary Clinton this way: "Barack Hussein Obama and all of his talk will do nothing for our country. There is so much that people don't know about his upbringing in the Muslim world. His stepfather was a radical Muslim and the ranting of his minister against the white America, you can't convince me that some of that didn't rub off on him.

"No, I want a president that will salute our flag, and put their hand on the Bible when they take the oath of office."

[...]

Karen Seifert, a volunteer from New York, was outside of the largest polling location in Lackawanna County, Pa., on primary day when she was pressed by a Clinton volunteer to explain her backing of Obama. "I trust him," Seifert replied. According to Seifert, the woman pointed to Obama's face on Seifert's T-shirt and said: "He's a half-breed and he's a Muslim. How can you trust that?"

* * *

Pollsters have found it difficult to accurately measure racial attitudes, as some voters are unwilling to acknowledge the role that race plays in their thinking. But some are not. Susan Dzimian, a Clinton supporter who owns residential properties, said outside a polling location in Kokomo that race was a factor in how she viewed Obama. "I think if it was somebody other than him, I'd accept it," she said of a black candidate. "If Colin Powell had run, I would be willing to accept him."
The purpose of posts like this? As predictably as sunrise occurring tomorrow, Democrats will start throwing "racism" around during the general election. When they do, posts like this will remind them that they have absolutely no room to talk.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 17 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
Monday, May 12, 2008

Militarizing Venezuela and supporting terrorists?
Posted by: McQ
 
Hugo goes shopping:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will order $2 billion of Russian weapons, including submarines, during a visit to Moscow this month, Kommersant reported, without saying where it got the information.

Venezuela, which has bought $4 billion of Russian arms in the last three years, will order four Project 636 diesel subs, Mi-28 combat helicopters and airplanes made by Ilyushin Co., Kommersant said.
Chavez has been on a military spending spree for some time. And many are wondering what the purpose of such spending is. Oh, it is well known that he uses the US as the reason for arming up, but is that really why he feels the need to buy advanced weaponry?

As was demonstrated in his latest call up of his army during the "crisis" with Colombia, his isn't the most proficient army in the world, but there has to be a reason that Chavez is arming Venezuela beyond any alleged threat from the US.

The WSJ reported a day or two ago on one real possiblity. Information taken from a laptop belonging to FARC terrorists killed in a cross border raid by Colombian troops in Ecuador has allegedly yielded some very deep connections between Chavez and the terrorists:
The computer files hint at the depth of Mr. Chávez's antipathy towards the U.S., which he often describes as an "empire" oppressing Latin America. According to one document, Venezuela's interior minister, Ramón Rodríguez Chacin, last November asked the FARC to train Venezuela's military in nuts-and-bolts guerrilla tactics — including "operational tactics, explosives, ... jungle camps, ambushes, logistics, mobility" — so that soldiers would be prepared to fight a guerrilla war if the U.S. were to invade Venezuela.
So using the cross-training of Venezuelan troops in "guerilla war" against a non-existent US threat as a pretext for the relationship (the not so subtle subtext being the view that FARC is a legitimate organization and Colombia's government is nothing more than a US proxie), Chavez has a reason to support the relationship materially and otherwise.

Of course Chavez has been lobbying to have FARC removed from the list of terrorist organizations, thus far to no avail. But, more importantly, per the documents found on the computer, he's been supporting them with weapons and other materials as well as political and other support.
One email, apparently sent by a FARC commander known as "Timochenko" to the guerrillas' ruling body in March 2007, describes meetings with Venezuelan naval-intelligence officers who offer the FARC assistance in getting "rockets." The Venezuelans also offer to help a FARC guerrilla travel to the Middle East to learn how to use the rockets.

Colombian military analysts believe the reference is to shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, a weapon that the guerrillas desperately need if they hope to blunt Colombia's recent gains. "The FARC realizes that its military problem is air power," says Gen. Oscar Naranjo, who heads the country's national police.

In another email dated early 2007, FARC commander Iván Márquez describes meetings with the Venezuelan military's intelligence chief, Gen. Hugo Carvajal, and another Venezuelan officer to talk about "finances, arms and border policy." Mr. Márquez relates that the Venezuelans will provide the guerrillas some 20 "very powerful bazookas," which Colombian military officials believe is a reference to rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

An officer reached at Gen. Carvajal's office said the general was the only person authorized to comment and he couldn't be reached because he was traveling.

At the meeting with Gen. Carvajal, another Venezuelan general is described as offering the port of Maracaibo to facilitate arms shipments to the guerrillas. The general suggests piggybacking on shipments from Russia — from which Venezuela itself is buying everything from Kalashnikovs to jet fighters — to "include some containers destined to the FARC" with various arms for the guerrillas' own use.

A spokesman at the Russian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

The proposals to obtain weaponry are part of a broad program of economic and political support for the FARC from Mr. Chávez's government, some of which was detailed in emails that were made public in the days just after the cross-border military raid that yielded the computer files.

Another email describes a November meeting between two FARC commanders and Mr. Chávez. The commanders, Ricardo Granda and Iván Márquez, report back in the email that Mr. Chávez gave orders to create "rest areas" and hospital zones for the guerrillas to use on the Venezuelan side of the border.

Many documents talk about how to fit generous offers of Venezuelan aid to the FARC's long-term "strategic plan" of taking power in Colombia. In one document dated January 2007, one top FARC commander speaks of a "loan" for $250 million to buy arms which the FARC will pay back once it has reached power. "Don't think of it as a loan, think of it as solidarity," says Mr. Rodríguez Chacin, the interior minister, in another document.
The files have yet to be verified, although Interpol computer experts, who've been examining them for months, are supposed to issue a report soon. Meanwhile, as expected, both FARC and Venezuela have called the files "fake". Unfortunately, some of the files have been verified:
There have been some recent indications that the computers contain accurate information. Police in Costa Rica staged a successful raid on a home belonging to alleged FARC sympathizers, and recovered $480,000 in cash, guided by information from the documents suggesting the money would be located there.

In addition, Ecuador's interior minister confirmed that he had met with Mr. Reyes, after an email describing the previously secret meeting was found on the laptops and made public by Colombia.
If these documents are verified as real and corroborated, the fallout could be significant. Colombia will, justifiably, have a case against Venezuela for meddling in its internal affairs and supporting terrorists whose aim it is to topple that government. How Venezuela will react is anyone's guess, but there were certainly be heightened tensions at a minimum. Whether other Latin American states will call Venezuela to task as they did Colombia about its cross-border raid that netted these documents remains to be seen. But watching Chavez operate now for a few years, I doubt that being caught red-handed will deter him one bit.

If there's going to be war in South America, it won't be because the US started it, I'd be willing to bet on that. It'll start with Venezuela and Colombia and it will be because of Chavez's desire to export his "Bolivarian revolution" and expand his tin-pot dictatorship.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 5 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Foreign Affairs

 
QandO
 
Bob Barr announces his candidacy for the Presidency
Posted by: McQ
 
Obviously he's not running as a Republican, although, well, I'll get to that in a minute:
Former US Representative Bob Barr of Georgia announced that he will run as a Libertarian this year. He first must win that party's nomination at its national convention that begins May 22.

A conservative former Republican, Barr could end up hurting presumptive GOP nominee John McCain — just as some Democrats fear that Ralph Nader's independent candidacy could bleed votes from the Democratic nominee.

Barr, 59, who served in Congress from 1995 to 2003, helped lead Bill Clinton's impeachment. He quit the Republican Party two years ago, saying he had grown disillusioned with its failure to shrink government and its willingness to scale back civil liberties in fighting terrorism.
Now, to the other part. Barr, if his former ideology is any indication, is hardly the prototypical libertarian. Look at this statement for example:
In a news conference, Barr said "only a fool" would specify a date and timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. But he said it's "extremely important" and in the best interest of national defense to draw down dramatically the US troop presence in Iraq and decrease the military and political footprint in Iraq.
A foreign policy? Admitting the legitimacy of the war in Iraq? A fairly heretical stance for a Libertarian Party candidate, wouldn't you say (although fairly comforting to me, personally)? That alone, if the past is any indication, should see him run out of the Libertarian Party on a rail.

And, of course, there are his past stances on drugs, abortion and a host of other issues which may trouble the LP (I'd like to see him address all of that as soon as possible).

That said, I've also exchanged emails with a former LP party chairman in GA about Barr and asked him what he thinks of his candidacy. He told me he's had many long conversations with Barr, expressed his concerns about Barr's former positions and has come away convinced that Barr has indeed changed on many issues to better reflect that of most libertarians. I'm still somewhat skeptical, but given the guy who told me that is a pretty upfront guy, I'll certainly give Barr the benefit of the doubt.

Will his possible candidacy hurt McCain?

I don't think so. And if it did, I really wouldn't care. Barr will certainly garner votes from the right but whether they would have ever been McCain votes is deeply debatable. Where he may pick up votes is among Paul supporters, although his comments on Iraq may run them off as well.

It'll be interesting to watch this unfold, especially if he manages to become the nominee of the LP. I'm convinced that'll take some stretching that the majority of LP members may feel uncomfortable with making. In the meantime, since Barr is a GA guy, I'm going to try to find a way to score an interview. Lot's of questions need answering.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 12 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
Who is trangulating now?
Posted by: McQ
 
Triangulation - one of Bill Clintons Dick Morris inspired methods of stealing issues from Republicans.

Busily engaged in doing that on the environmental front is that great conservative, John McCain [/snark]:
After spending several weeks staking out positions on taxes, Iraq and judges designed to appeal to conservatives, John McCain is shifting his attention to independents and Democrats, with proposals on climate change.

The Republican presidential candidate also is using his stance on energy and the environment to draw distinctions between himself and President Bush, whose popularity is at a near-record low.

Sen. McCain's support of regulating global-warming gases like carbon dioxide — the biggest environmental issue before Congress — more closely resembles the stance of his Democratic rivals, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, though he disagrees with them on how such regulations should be structured.

Besides championing legislation to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions, Sen. McCain has opposed the administration's call to open parts of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling, citing the refuge as a natural treasure on par with the Florida Everglades and the Grand Canyon in his home state of Arizona.
I'd love to believe this is all election year pandering and he has no intent on acting on this if he indeed is elected president, but unfortunately I don't believe that to be the case. His blowzy reference to ANWR as a national treasure on par with the Florida Everglades and the Grand Canyon is just too ridiculous for words.

But politically it may work, although it is clear the more extreme among the "environmentalists" will never be satisfied:
"He's certainly better than Bush, and ... the average Republican senator" on environmental matters, but "dramatically worse than the average Republican governor," Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, said in an interview.
Regardless of who occupies the White House next January, I think you'd better prepare yourself to pay through the nose for this manufactured crisis known as global warming climate change.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 3 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Environment

 
QandO
 
Democrat "Dream Team" unlikely
Posted by: McQ
 
Yesterday, Dale and I discussed the obvious fact that Hillary Clinton's run for the Democratic presidential nomination is pretty much dead with even wins in WV and KY not being enough to save her candidacy. Obama has recently even taken the lead in pledged superdelegates. So in every conceivable way that matters in the nomination process, Obama has the lead.

That has revived talk of a possible "dream team" ticket with Clinton accepting the VP slot on the ticket. I, for a variety of reasons, find it difficult to believe that will happen.

A) Barack Obama doesn't want to share the spotlight with Hillary Clinton (and, inevitably, Bill) - not after the war that's been waged between them in the primary. I believe, politically, some pretty hard feelings have developed between the two.

B) Given Clinton's ego I simply cannot fathom her accepting the VP job.

C) Michelle Obama - from what I've read, she has nothing good to say about Hillary Clinton and I'm sure she'll be strongly advising her husband that it isn't in his best interest to have a Clinton as a VP.

Add to that the fact that Clinton's next and possibly last opportunity for the presidency is 2012 and it doesn't make sense for her to accept the position.

If, for instance, Obama turned out to be the Jimmy Carter of this era, she's stuck with being a part of a failed administration. And unless Obama chooses not to run for reelection, she's stuck with being the loyal VP and going down with the Obama administration's ship.

OTOH, if McCain beats Obama, it is likely he'll be a one-term president. She's set up for 2012, and Obama is out of the way. Even if McCain chooses to run for reelection, she would have the inside track among Dems.

However, if an Obama administration does well, and wins reelection, she's pretty much screwed in both 2012 and 2016 unless she's been the VP. Should that be the scenario, she'd be faced with the daunting task of running at age 68 against the incumbent VP of a successful administration with 8 years if "executive experience".

Carl Bernstein disagrees with my assertion she won't take it but seems to agree about "A" and "C" above:
Another major Democratic Party figure, who supports her for president, agreed: "It's not going to be a quiet exit. ... Obama has got a terrible situation. He marches to a different drummer. He won't want to take her on the ticket. But he might have to, even though the idea of Vice President Hillary with Bill in the background at the White House is not something — especially after what [the Clintons] have thrown at him that he relishes. I believe she'll go for it."

However, several important Democrats aligned with Obama predicted that he — and Michelle Obama — will vigorously resist any Clinton effort to get on the ticket. Rather, Obama is more likely to try to convince Clinton to either stay in the Senate or accept another position in an Obama administration, should he win the presidency.
Right now, given the probable lopsided loss Obama will suffer in both WV and KY, I'm sure he's fine with her staying in the race. It is much more palatable to lose by such margins if your opponent is still in the race vs. having dropped out prior to the primary. However, after Oregon, which everyone expects Obama to win, it would be the appropriate time for Clinton to drop out, if she's going to do it. I think if she does it at that time, she then could look toward a viable future candidacy. If, however, she takes it to the convention, I think she irreparably harms her political future and may cause a big enough schism within the party to cost it the White House in '08.

Regardless of when and if she does bow out, I still don't see her on the ticket in any capacity for the general election.
 

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QandO
 
NYTimes: Government Subsidies for Mortgage Bubble
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
The New York Times Editorial Board seems to think the way to fight the housing bubble is to...subsidize demand?
Earlier this year, Mr. Bush derided a modest plan to provide $4 billion to states and localities to buy foreclosed properties, saying that buying up empty homes helps only "the lenders or the speculators." Actually, it protects entire neighborhoods and local economies from the effects of foreclosures by preventing a greater buildup of unsold homes and a further drop in prices.
Do we really want US housing policy to emulate US agricultural policy?
 

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QandO
 
More "rare success" in Iraq (Update)
Posted by: McQ
 
Nothing particularly new here, except perhaps Stephan Farrell's somewhat obvious bias:
Three hundred miles south of Baghdad, the oil-saturated city of Basra has been transformed by its own surge, now seven weeks old.

In a rare success, forces loyal to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki have largely quieted the city, to the initial surprise and growing delight of many inhabitants who only a month ago shuddered under deadly clashes between Iraqi troops and Shiite militias.
Rare success? It was the second of three operations Maliki has undertaken (the first being in the Sunni area near Anbar), all of which have been successful, at least to this point.

Farrell notes that the Basra operation was "poorly planned and ill-coordinated" and that al-Sadr and the boys made fun of the name (Charge of the Knights) of the operation, calling it "Charge of the Mice".

Yet, the operation begun in March and continuing to this day has the ISF in charge of the streets of Basra and the Mahdi army nowhere to be found. As we've pointed out in post and podcast, for most military observers, it isn't how you gained control of the streets that's important, but rather that you own them that makes you a 'victor'. The ISF owns the streets in Basra.

And in what I assume would be labeled another "rare success", the Mahdi Army is backing off in Sadr City, a suburb of Baghdad, as well.
"The ground has changed for them," said Jalaluddin al-Sagheer, a member of Parliament from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a rival party to the Sadrists. "They are suffering a lot of losses and defeats, and they are politically isolated."

Conversely, he added, "there is national, political unity" coalescing behind the government.
So we have Maliki winning both militarily and politically against Sadr and a developing "national, political unity". But for the NYT, that's not good enough.

Because, you know, such optimism goes against the established narrative. Move along citizen - nothing to see here. Move along.

UPDATE: Ed Morrisey on the NYT coverage.
 

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QandO
 
Sunday, May 11, 2008

Podcast for 11 May 08
Posted by: Dale Franks
 
In this podcast, Bruce McQuain and Dale Franks discuss the Democratic nomination race, the tragedy in Myanmar (Burma), and Iraq's Security Forces move into Sadr City.

Observations

The direct link to the podcast is here.

The intro and outro music is Vena Cava by 50 Foot Wave, and is available for free download here.

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don't forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don't have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here.
 

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QandO
 
BlogTalk Radio - 8pm (EST)
Posted by: McQ
 
Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subjects: Hillary's racial analysis and the upcoming primaries in WV and KY. Maliki seems to have won the day against the Mahdi army in Sadr City - what that means. And if we have time, Myanmar's reluctance to admit aid and aid workers - what's up with that?
 

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QandO
 
Different kinds of reality
Posted by: McQ
 
Three political goals - less pollution, less dependence of foreign oil, develop incentives for alternative fuels.

Today's Reality - gas prices are sharply up.

Probable Result - less miles driven, less pollution, less dependence on foreign oil, more of an incentive to develop alternative fuels. More people using mass transit.

Today's election year "reality" - claim to feel pinched citizen's pain, demand oil companies reduce price of fuel, promise windfall taxes, flooding of the market with oil from the Strategic Petroleum reserve and suspending federal gas tax to lessen the price of gas.

Probable Result - enable more miles driven, thus more pollution, more dependence on foreign oil and less incentive to develop alternative fuels.

Market? What's a market?

Brilliant.
 

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QandO
 
Happy Mother’s Day
Posted by: McQ
 
I only wish my mother was still here to thank her for all the wonderful things she did for me and my brothers.

She was a remarkable woman who pushed the envelope all her life. A small town girl who ended up seeing the world, commanded troops during WWII (and was awarded the Bronze Star) as a Signal Corps officer in North Africa, Italy and France rising to the rank of Captain. The first woman in the state of Arkansas to command an American Legion post and later serve as State Commander for the American Legion. She took up golf late in her life, and with most things she did, excelled, becoming a state champion.

My father was career military and she gave up her career to become a mother and raise three sons. We lived all over the world. She also spent many years alone as my father served unaccompanied tours, but took it in stride. She instilled values and principles that still guide my life today and have been passed on to my son and my grandsons.

She was also one of the most loving and caring mothers for which a son could ever ask. Fiercely protective, she still knew she was raising sons and we had to test our wings - so she let us. She was something special and helped give us what my brother has aptly described as a "Norman Rockwell childhood."

We lost her a few years ago at age 83. We miss her terribly.

Happy Mother's Day, mom.
 

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QandO
 
Home Brew
Posted by: McQ
 
The next generation of home brewers?
Every few weeks Gordon Elliott drives 22 miles to the Hare and Hounds pub in Marple, Cheshire, collects a barrel of waste cooking oil from his stepdaughter and takes it back to his personal oil refinery in his garage in Leigh, near Bolton. The retired construction site manager then decants the liquid into a machine and adds a few chemicals.

Twenty-four hours later the waste oil has been purified, filtered and refined and is ready to be used in one of his family's two diesel cars. Instead of paying £1.25p a litre at the local supermarket, he has paid 15p to make his own biodiesel. He says he is saving nearly £100 a month - as well as 90% of the greenhouse gases he would normally emit from driving. The cars perform perfectly, the equipment will be paid for within a year and the pleasure of making his own fuel is intense. "It's the principle. I do it for the environment and to spite the exchequer," he said.

Elliott, 79, is part of a cottage industry of people who have turned to making their own recycled "biodiesel" in response to the doubling of fuel prices in just over a year. Companies making biodiesel "reactors" report booming sales and demand for cheaper diesel is outstripping anything they can produce.
I can see fast food joints selling waste oil instead of having to pay to have it hauled off - a new profit center. Cook your fries and then drive to work.
 

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QandO
 
Saturday, May 10, 2008

McCain and Climate Change - One of those issues ...
Posted by: McQ
 
This is one of those issues where it doesn't matter which party wins in November, I think Americans end up being screwed:
Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) comments about climate change Friday have sparked a flurry of speculation among national environmentalists, who are now optimistic the presumptive GOP nominee will vote next month for a bill limiting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

McCain didn't say for sure whether he would back the bill authored by Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.), both of whom have campaigned actively for him on the trail. But he said they were coming closer to satisfying his concerns about the bill, which is slated for a vote in early June and does not boast the same generous subsidies for nuclear power as the bill McCain and Lieberman co-sponsored in the past.

"I'm pleased in negotiations and discussion with Senator Lieberman that there will be a far more important nuclear component of this legislation that's going to be coming to the floor," McCain said in a press conference at Jersey City's Liberty Science Center. "I hope that it will be passed and I hope that the entire Congress will join in supporting it and the president of the United States would sign it."

McCain has repeatedly pushed hard for nuclear power as one of the primary ways the U.S. can cut its greenhouse gas emissions and reduce its energy dependence on foreign countries. But several Senate Democrats, who back the idea of a mandatory cap on carbon emissions, oppose providing additional subsidies for building nuclear power plants.

McCain advocates cutting U.S. carbon emissions 60 percent by 2050, compared to 1990 levels, while the Lieberman-Warner bill would cut them by nearly 70 percent by mid-century. Both Democratic Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) support the bill, though they advocate a more ambitious reduction goal of 80 percent by 2050.
McCain advocates deep cuts ... but not as deep as Democrats.

Whoop freakin' wheee. They will still be monsterously expensive.

No, McCain feels that's all fine, and isn't even that concerned about the depth of cuts if nuclear power is included - somewhat. Somehow.
The question of how drastically the U.S. should limit its carbon emissions does not appear to be a sticking point for McCain, and Lieberman said in an interview yesterday he believed his friend would back the bill once it reaches the floor next month.

"I'm confident that he is going to support the bill," Lieberman said, adding the two men had discussed the matter this morning, and their aides were continuing to work out details of the legislation's nuclear provision.
Can't wait, can you? This is what his grand plan will face while the rest of us are paying through the rear-end for a trace gas:
However Daniel J. Weiss, who directs climate strategy for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, questioned whether the GOP nominee's support would come with too high a price.

"John McCain's reliance nuclear power to solve global warming would require billions of dollars in federal subsidies, millions of gallons of water, and 10 more Yucca Mountains to dispose of all the waste," Weiss wrote in an e-mail. "It is a 20th century solution to a 21st century problem."
And, of course, McCain's support will be used to badger other Republicans to join in:
Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation's global warming campaign executive director, said it could encourage other Republicans to come on board in the weeks to come.
This is a perfect example of the leftward drift of the GOP and its spineless capitulation to a movement which scientifically, seems to be coming apart at the seams. I call it a movement, because given the new science and evidence to the contrary, it certainly is difficult to label it "science."
 

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QandO
 
West Virginia: Hillary Country
Posted by: Dale Franks
 
The newest tracking polls show Hillary Clinton up by 36% over Barack Obama in West Virginia.
 

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QandO
 
This paranoid ...
Posted by: McQ
 
Yesterday I asked "how paranoid is Myanmar's junta"?

Today they answered - this paranoid:
Myanmar's military regime distributed international aid Saturday but plastered the boxes with the names of top generals in an apparent effort to turn the relief effort for last week's devastating cyclone into a propaganda exercise.
Apparently it took a couple of days to print up the necessary labels to plaster all over the aid boxes from other countries.
"We have already seen regional commanders putting their names on the side of aid shipments from Asia, saying this was a gift from them and then distributing it in their region," said Mark Farmaner, director of Burma Campaign UK, which campaigns for human rights and democracy in the country.

"It is not going to areas where it is most in need," he said in London.
From 1.5 to 2 million people are severely effected by the devastation the cyclone brought.
"It's a race against the clock," Byrs said. "If the humanitarian aid does not get into the country on a larger scale, there's the risk of a second catastrophe," she said, adding that people could die from hunger and diseases.

Health experts have warned there was a great risk of diarrhea and cholera spreading because of the lack of clean drinking water and sanitation.

Farmaner suggested that aid be delivered to the country, also known as Burma, even if the regime does not give its permission.

"We have had a week to convince the regime to behave reasonably, and they are still blocking aid," he said. "So the international community needs to wake up and take bolder steps."

However, aid providers are unlikely to pursue unilateral deliveries like airdrops because of the diplomatic firestorm that it could set off.
I know it is hard for much of the West to fathom such paranoia, but this is really no different than when the Khemer Rouge ran Cambodia. Despotic regimes, regardless of their ideology, prefer, in fact, demand total control of every aspect of life in their country. It is the only way they can maintain their regime.

A catastrophe such as this throws them completely off their game as the instant and overwhelming need the storm generated is far beyond their capacity to address. But they are far more fearful of others coming into their country than they are of letting their own citizens sicken and die. It is an amazing and consistent ideology-free trait of totalitarian regimes.
The government's abilities are limited. It has only a few dozen helicopters, most of which are small and old. It also has about 15 transport planes, primarily small jets unable to carry hundreds of tons of supplies.

"Not only don't they have the capacity to deliver assistance, they don't have experience," said Farmaner, the British aid worker. "It's already too late for many people. Every day of delays is costing thousands of lives."
 

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QandO
 
Meanwhile in Iraq (update)
Posted by: McQ
 
What some would call "a surprising turn of events":
Followers of rebel cleric Muqtada al Sadr agreed late Friday to allow Iraqi security forces to enter all of Baghdad's Sadr City and to arrest anyone found with heavy weapons in a surprising capitulation that seemed likely to be hailed as a major victory for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.

In return, Sadr's Mahdi Army supporters won the Iraqi government's agreement not to arrest Mahdi Army members without warrants, unless they were in possession of "medium and heavy weaponry."

The agreement would end six weeks of fighting in the vast Shiite Muslim area that's home to more than 2 million residents and would mark the first time that the area would be under government control since Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003. On Friday, 15 people were killed and 112 were injured in fighting, officials at the neighborhoods two major hospitals said.

It also would be a startling turnaround in fortunes for Maliki, who'd been widely criticized for picking a fight with Sadr's forces, first in the southern port city of Basra and then in Sadr City.
However others would call it the inevitable happening. Al Sadr, in a society which respects power, has just been rendered virtually powerless. We should see casualties again go down,