QandO
Questions and Observations| « Al Qaeda bi-weekly | Main | Krugspeare » |
|
January 26, 2004 Bin Ladens strategy....or lack thereof Some time back, Donald Sensing discussed bin Ladens lack of strategy, writing..."I see no evidence that bin Laden has ever had any plan except violence itself, committing it where he could, when he could". Reinforcing that notion, Saudi Al Qaeda ideologue Louis Attiya Allah writes in "Voice of Jihad" on the upcoming plans.... "It will be a surprising blow, that is, one that is completely unexpected. They cannot conceive or imagine the way in which it will be carried out... It is a great blow. That is, the losses that will be caused to America and the Western world in its wake will be very great. Due to its magnitude, the blow will change the international balances of powers..."So...no plan, except to blow stuff up? And hope that, when the chips land, the balance of powers will be changed? That's hardly a strategy...it's faith. Of course, faith is one thing they have in spades, so it's not entirely suprising that Al Qaeda would turn to their faith as a central mechanism for accomplishing their goals. I can't speak to the theology of the matter, but the strategy is spectacularly bad. As Kissinger wrote in Diplomacy..... Actions geared to the mood of the moment and unrelated to any overall strategy cannot be sustained indefinitely.Osama bin Laden, it seems, is reacting (read: blowing stuff up) here, there and everywhere with little or no effect, except to make enemies and weaken the alliances that Al Qaeda may have had. Even among the nations have have been supportive of Al Qaeda, things are going badly. Saudi Arabia is cracking down on them, Iran is putting Al Qaeda members on trial, Pakistan has moved against them, etc. Clearly, bin Laden is making large gestures but getting negative returns. Yet, he does not change his strategy. In some ways, he is reminiscent of Napoleon III, of whom Kissinger wrote.... Napoleon had wrought the revolution which he had sought, though its consequences were quite the opposite of what he had intended. The map of Europe had indeed been redrawn, but the new arrangement had irreparably weakened France's influence without bringing Napoleon the renown he craved.Substitute the words "Middle East", "bin Laden" and "Al Qaeda" where appropriate, and we have our current strategic situation. It is worth remembering that Napoleon was marginalized largely by the manipulation of his own strategic failures. Otto Von Bismark allowed him to make enemies, and lose influence. That seems eerily familiar to the path down which Osama bin Laden is travelling......with no plan, except to commit violence when and where he could. |