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February 11, 2004 Priorities Interesting polling data from Gallup: "Now I am going to read a list of some of the issues that will probably be discussed in next year's presidential election campaigns. As I read each one, please tell me how important the candidates' positions on that issue will be in influencing your vote for president -- extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. How about [see below]?"Quick hits: Bush is staking out positions on Gay Marriage, Immigration, and taxes. Democrats are running against him with the economy, the deficit, health care and a variety of Iraq-related issues. And education? That's a bit of a suprise. Bet we're going to be hearing a lot about that soon. At first glance, this doesn't bode well for Bush. After all, he's going after the less important issues. Democrats are campaigning on issues more important to voter decisions. On the other hand, this doesn't break down where Republican and Democrats differ, and it doesn't indicate what issues are important to swing voters. Still, it strikes me that Bush better have some solutions in mind - not just excuses - when voters take a look at the most important issues. |
If Bush let's the Democrats frame the debate then he indeed may have problems. If, otoh, he frames it with the war on terrorism at the top (including Iraq), tax cuts and the rebounding economy (plus the 2.6 million jobs which economists are saying should be created this year) and his successes in foreign policy (such as Lybia, etc) he can pull this off. He can point to both education and health care as area in which he's been active as well as his plan to cut the deficit to neutralize those topics. I see gay marriage and immigration as more likely to be political landmines for the Dems than the Reps.
But to make this all work, the Reps have to being framing the issues and debates NOW.
Posted by: McQ at February 11, 2004 09:49 AM
Does it bug anyone besides me that education is the #1 national issue? As a father, education is important to me, but that's a state issue at the outside, and more properly a county/local issue.
Sigh....
Posted by: Steverino at February 11, 2004 10:06 AM
I might consider education a national issue, in that I think the "Department of..." needs to be abolished. But beyond that I'm with Steverino.
Posted by: McGehee at February 11, 2004 10:10 AM
Heh, I'm pretty sure you meant to write "Bush is staking OUT positions on Gay Marriage, Immigration, and taxes" rathern than "Bush is staking OUR positions on Gay Marriage, Immigration, and taxes." Or can that be considered a Freudian slip? :)
bob
Posted by: bob at February 11, 2004 10:22 AM
Thanks, Bob. I corrected it. And his positions on those issues are *not* necessarily mine. (I agree on tax cuts, generally; am unsure about immigration issues; disagree on gay marriage)
Regarding education as a federal issue? I'm with you guys. Decentralize the whole thing. Let states and communities make the decisions.
Posted by: Jon Henke at February 11, 2004 10:31 AM
After education, I think Bush knows that he's already addressed the top 5 issues in the election. He can point to any number of (what he believes to be [I hate his prescription drug benefit but he'll call it a success]) successes in any of the categories.
I think he's looking at other issues to bring in swing voters. And I think it's going to work.
Posted by: A fine scotch at February 11, 2004 10:58 AM
I think that the question below is actually the more important one, because I think the election will basically come down to whether or not a majority of voters believe we're really at war with militant Islam. If they do, Bush wins in a landslide. If they don't Bush probably loses a close one. That said, this data is particularly encouraging for Bush.
bob
"Looking ahead to next year's [sic] presidential election -- that is, in November 2004 --what will be the most important issues that you will take into account when deciding whom to vote for?" Multiple responses
%
The economy 32
War issues in Iraq 18
Homeland security/Military defense 15
International/Foreign affairs 9
Health care/Health insurance 7
Employment issues 5
Honesty, integrity of candidate 4
Domestic issues 4
Senior care/Medicare/Prescription drugs 4
Other 30
No opinion 4
Posted by: bob at February 11, 2004 11:17 AM
Another interesting Gallup poll shows Bush 49% vs Kerry 48%, where the same poll just over a week ago showed Kerry with an 8-point advantage. Bush's approval rating has come up to 52%.
It's going to be a fun summer for political junkies of every stripe.
Posted by: Steverino at February 11, 2004 12:03 PM
Woops, in my post above, I meant to say "this data is NOT particularly encouraging for Bush."
Posted by: bob at February 11, 2004 12:21 PM
I'd say the poll is encouraging for Bush, seeing as the economy is rebounding. He can nullify any economy negatives remaining by making it clear that Kerry wants to raise taxes...
Posted by: shark at February 11, 2004 02:33 PM
I'd agree with you Shark, but unfortunately, Bush won't get any credit from the media for improving the economy. Those tax cuts, you see, only benefitted "his friends in the oil industry" and "big business."
bob
Posted by: bob at February 11, 2004 04:30 PM