February 13, 2004

Selective data
Posted by Jon Henke

In today's NYTimes, Bob Herbert writes....

Mr. Bush favored the war in Vietnam, but he had the necessary clout to ensure that he wouldn't have to serve there. He entered the Texas Air National Guard at the height of the war in 1968 by leaping ahead of 500 other applicants who were on a waiting list.
The Selective Data Fairy strikes again. Here's what Bob Herbert forgets to mention...
However, the Dallas Morning News, which also looked into Bush's military record, reported that while Bush's unit in Texas had a waiting list for many spots, he was accepted because he was one of a handful of applicants willing and qualified to spend more than a year in active training flying F-102 jets.
Moreover, Herberts assertion that Bush leapt ahead of "500 other applicants" is comparable to me saying "I'm in line with a few thousand people at McDonalds". Sure, the total number of people in line at McDonalds around the country will add up to thousands, but the only relevant data point is the number of people in line at the specific McDonalds at which I am standing in line.

Herbert says Bush jumped ahead of 500 people, but the Dallas Morning News reported a great deal less....

SLOVER AND KUEMPEL: (13) Records provided to The News by Tom Hail, a historian for the Texas Air National Guard, show that the unit Mr. Bush signed up for was not filled. In mid-1968, the 147th Fighter Interceptor Group, based in Houston, had 156 openings among its authorized staff of 925 military personnel.

(14) Of those, 26 openings were for officer slots, such as that filled by Mr. Bush, and 130 were for enlisted men and women. Also, several former Air Force pilots who served in the unit said they were recruited from elsewhere to fly for the Texas Guard.
...
(33) The Texas Air Guard had about 900 slots for pilots, air and ground crew members, supervisors, technicians and support staff. Sgt. Donald Dean Barnhart, who still serves in the Guard, said that he kept a waiting list of about 150 applicants' names.

Now, discuss among yourselves why he might have a waiting list and unfilled posts, but the fact is that even the waiting list was 156 people.

Not 500....unless you count other units - units to which Bush was NOT applying.

I'll submit this item to the NYTimes public editor. We'll see what he has to say about this selective and misleading use of data.

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