QandO

April 06, 2004

Ground truth
Posted by McQ

The battle in Fallujah continues with recent reports citing 21 Marines dead so far in operation "Vigilent Resolve". Meanwhile, in Ramadi, more fighting as US troops engage more die-hard Ba'thist insurgents and other terrorists.

In the south, fighting has been taking place in Amarah and Nasiriyah.

In Baghdad, US and coalition troops were attacked by mullah Al-Sadar's militia in Sadar City (formerly Saddam city) after the mullah's newspaper was closed and a close aide was arrested. They have now issued an arrest warrant for Al-Sadar.

Sounds terrible, doesn't it?

Some perspective.

Fallujah and Ramadi fall within the well-known "Sunni Triangle" which is and has been a hot-bed of Iraqi "resistance" (which means where the former Ba'athists die-hards and foreign terrorists have essentially found 'safe harbor'.

This is a battle that has been brewing for a year. This isn't something new, nor is it something that at least I haven't been expecting. The final straw was the desecration of the bodies of the 4 Americans.

Some say we should have done this long ago. Perhaps. But then the otherside of the argument is let them feel froggy. Let them congregate and celebrate. And once they're all there, close the place off and clean it out.

That's what's going on. Its going to cost us some fine Marines, but it may also result in breaking the back of the Ba'athists and foreign fighters once and for all. It will also make further policing there much easier (an example such as this goes a long way toward "pacification").

Completely unconnected from this is the situation in Sadar City. This is the result of a radical and extremist mullah, who isn't supported by most of the other mullahs or the majority of Shiite believers. But, depending on how this is handled, that could change.

The point, however, is its a different problem. It is not part of some grand plan of simultaneous uprising. It is the convergence of two different problems which seem, if left unexamined, to be part of a nation-wide flare-up.

The last reported problems in the south are more "civic" unrest than related to a revolt against the British presense. Again, a detailed look finds the problems there unrelated to the other two sites of conflict. And it appears as if the Brits are gaining a handle on the problem even as fighting continues.

I bring this all up because if one only glanced at the news reports, and didn't dig a bit, they'd think Iraq was spinning out of control. For instance the report of "planning" for more troops. That's a "go to hell" plan by the commander, in case it SHOULD "spin out of control". Its a contingency plan any good commander would want in place in case the situation were to 'go to hell'.

What it doesn't signal, as some of the press would like you to belive, is we're in a 'quagmire', such as the Economist belives (no HUGE surprise there).

While any situation, such as Iraq, could become a "quagmire", it isn't there yet. What we're seeing is a country trying to sort itself out after decades of brutal totalitarian rule. They have many points of view and many methods of expressing them.

Obviously there are going to be those who want to go back to the way it was. You'll find them in Fallujah and Ramadi. And there are those who have their own ideas as to how the new Iraq should look, they're in Sadar City and in the south.

What we have to understand is this is as much a part of the process as the constitution, the interim government and the upcoming handover. But without the US presence, without the resolution to quickly and decisively take action to repel chaos or violence where ever it emerges, it could become a quagmire very, very quickly.

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