QandO

April 23, 2004

The Fineman Theory
Posted by McQ

Howard Fineman trots out 9 reasons he thinks Bush will be elected. Some are debatable, such as the Woodward book and his "Tony & Trump" bit (although I don't think the Woodward book has hurt Bush much at all ... I think most of "fly-over" country see it as "old news"). And he's of the opinion that Fallujah and Najaf are actually helpful (echoing the Dick Morris point I posted about earlier this week). Then of course there are the 50 million in ads and the blatant partisanship of the 9/11 commission.

But I'd like to look at the three points I consider to be the most important:

The Economy. It is improving in most places in most ways. West Virginia is a good example. Bush won it in 2000 on the strength of protectionist promises made to steelworkers there. He has since dialed back on protection, and you would think that that presented a big opening to the Democrats there. But, for other reasons (voracious demand in China, mostly) the American steel industry is booming. There are other local and national trends out there. Some of that good news is getting out, which is why Bush’s numbers—still not great—are improving for handling the economy. And, as in Iraq, Kerry’s proposals aren’t radically different. He’s even in favor of keeping most of Bush’s tax cuts in place.

Face it ... the economy is hitting on all cylinders now. Barring disaster, its going to be even better when the election rolls around. The "miserable failure" is turning into anything BUT. However the power of this turn around must be exploited politically by the Bush team to mean anything in November. If they leave it to the media, my guess is the ratio of good economic news to "bad" economic news will run much more to the negative side than the positive. As in all politics, the side that frames the debate usually wins. And it doesn't hurt if most of America is working and has additional disposable income either.

Nader. I went to see him at a breakfast with reporters the other day, and expected to see a doddering fellow ready for the retirement home. Nothing could be further from the truth. Still sharp and energetic—and still possessed of his radar-like ability to hone in on the faults of the corporate/political establishment—Nader is a dagger pointed straight at the Kerry campaign. In the Washington Post poll, for example, he draws six points in a three-way match, compared with 48 for Bush and 44 for Kerry. Nader insists that he will draw equally from Democrats and Republicans; I don’t see it. And with Kerry taking a carefully modulated line on Iraq (made necessary by his $87 billion vote), Nader is free to be the Peace Candidate and the all-out anti Big Business candidate, too.

Nader may be the difference. Apparently, based on what I've been reading, his support remains strong (at least at the percentage he had in the last election) and in some cases, pollsters are reporting he may have picked up a percentage or so. Democrats, instead of trying to woo Nader and his supporters have turned hostile. That hostility may be enough to sink any possibility of a Kerry win.

Kerry, of course. John Kerry is durable, unflappable and determined. He works to be in the right place at the right time, and often is. He has no illusions about his own star power or charisma. He is a wooden campaigner, and his 20 years in the Senate have left him unable to see that bragging about legislative maneuvers is the last thing you want to do. Kerry explained to supporters recently that he’d voted for the $87 billion before he’d voted against it. In his mind, evidently, he was merely explaining (with a mordant sense of humor) how the Senate works. But now that line is the centerpiece of a BC04 attack ad. Kerry told financial supporters in New York the other week that his objective, for now, was to “preserve my acceptability.” That’s a pretty low standard—but one he won’t meet if that is his only goal. So far, his strategy has amounted mostly to: Vote for me, I’m not Bush. That’s not enough, especially if Kerry is seen by most voters the way the BC04 ad portrays him: as a flip-flopping manipulative insider.

Kerry will turn out to be his own worst enemy. As I've said repeatedly, he's peaked. Its not going to get any better, in fact, the more the country "gets to know" John Kerry, the less they're going to like him. "Acceptability", as Fineman points out, isn't enough. Its the Dole tactic all over again, and that was a disaster for the Republicans. In fact, on many levels, the Kerry candidacy is eerily similar to the Dole campaign.

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