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May 18, 2004
Zogby Says its Kerry's to lose
Posted by McQ
Pollster John Zogby, for whom I used to have some respect, has found a way to destroy that. Not because he breaks for Kerry, but because it is much too early to make these sorts of predictions:
I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) will win the election.
Have you recovered from the shock? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think he will win.
He lists four major reasons he believes this is true, and I'll leave it to you to read the linked article for them. In short, he believes there are very few undecided voters (so this means his poll reflects November in May), the economy is the major factor for most voters and Kerry leads comfortably in that area (again in MAY), the president is at the mercy of events that are out of his control (gee aren't they all?) and finally, Kerry's a "good closer".
This is all disputed by another pollster, Matt Towery, who questions each of these premises.
Let's take a look at one of Zogby's "reasons" ... the economy. Towery makes the point that people look at the economy on a very personal level ... their own pocketbook. If they're doing better then, its a plus for the incumbent. If not, then its a minus.
We have an improving economy now ... even Kerry and the DNC can't deny it.
As Michael Barone notes in US News, Kerry has been forced to drop the joblessness as a campaign issue:
John Kerry's hope of riding to the presidency by denouncing the "jobless recovery" is fading as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employers' survey results come in: 288,000 jobs in April, on top of a revised 337,000 for March and an 867,000 total for the first four months of this year. If job creation continues at the pace of March and April, there will be a net gain in jobs during President Bush's term. Opinion on the economy hasn't turned around yet, as voters focus on horrifying pictures from Iraq. But Kerry has already switched his emphasis from low job creation to other economic woes.
Jobs are a very local economic plus which works in the favor of Bush. So Kerry is now pounding trade. Well, folks, the "trade deficit" isn't a "local economic" issue. Its more on the esoteric side, which is less likely to garner Kerry votes if the economic condition of job seekers and workers have improved.
Business Week believes the economy to be in a "sweet spot" where a cycle of productivity gains and hiring have begun in earnest and that it will be a "long and sustainable" recovery.
From the beginning, this economic recovery has felt different. Officially, it began back in November, 2001. But it has only been in the past few months that growth has been strong enough for Corporate America to hang out the "For Hire" signs and take on more workers. And now, just as the job market has turned up, fears are mounting in financial markets that an inflationary brew of rising interest rates and surging oil prices will prematurely cut short the growth and the upswing in hiring.
It doesn't have to be that way. Indeed, such fears are probably misplaced. That's because the elongated start of the recovery means that the economy probably has a lot more room to run before it encounters a dangerous spurt in inflation. The key is productivity growth. It has been running at a remarkable 4.6% annual rate since the end of the recession and is the main reason the recovery has been so unusual.
It's not just that strong productivity gains allowed companies to put off the need to begin hiring. They have also helped to contain inflation by holding down labor costs, businesses' biggest expense. And they enable companies to do more with less, easing the strain on the economy as the expansion matures. "Strong productivity growth augurs well for a long and fairly strong expansion," says former White House Chief Economist Martin N. Baily.
In fact, the economy appears to have entered a sweet spot in which rising corporate profits and increasing personal incomes should play off each other in a virtuous cycle of expanding activity. In the early stage of the recovery, when demand was sluggish, the benefits of productivity went largely to businesses, which saved money by cutting jobs. But now that the jobs market has finally turned up, workers have begun to share in the gains, which should make the recovery more sustainable. Because companies are getting more out of their workers, they can afford to pay them a bit more while still enjoying powerful profits.
So the question, at least to me, is how does Zogby believe that Kerry can sustain a 52 to 39 lead over Bush on the question of the economy with all of this facing him?
Frankly, I don't know. And it calls into question the "integrity" of Zogby's future polling. He's gone out on a limb and made a prediction on what I would consider to be some pretty shaky premises ... especially as it concerns the economy and its impact. I also agree with Towrey when he says he believes Zogby has underestimated the power of the incumbency and the number of uncommitted voters (no way we're down to 5% in May ... more than 5% aren't even paying attention at this point).
All that to say I'll now be watching anything Zogby puts out there with a very jaundiced eye. Call me a cynic, but I'm of the opinion that a pollster who makes a prediction will then write questions to make his prediction a self-fullfilling prophecy.
I could be wrong ... but then I've been observing human nature for a very long time.
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