QandO

Yes, they are trend numbers, but I think they still are representative. The most recent numbers represent mid April through mid May; since WLIB consistently scored a 1.1 before the change, and the April score of 1.3 was generated during the change, the most recent numbers belong to Franken & Co. The numbers are tracked continuously, and I cannot believe they've held onto the previous format's listeners. These are their listeners. If the number had come in under 1.3 it would have been a disaster.

The WFAN comparison vis-a-vis ad sales doesn't work for me. Except for Imus, WFAN is a sports talker: a tightly focused niche that naturally attracts certain advertising dollars. They also were the only sprts talker in the market. With the recent introduction of ESPN Radio (WEPN) into the market, those ad dollars are under some heavy pressure now. "Mike & the Mad Dog" may be safe, but I wouldn't bet on a lot of the rest of their programming.

WLIB regularly lost money and was propped up by its sister station, WBLS, because Inner City wanted to provide that Caribbean niche and was willing to use the more popular WBLS's revenues to offset WLIB's losses to do so. AAR does not have that option. They are paying money to every station they operate on and need to pull in a pretty big audience before they can ever hope to charge ad rates that will make them economically viable.

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguin at May 24, 2004 08:33 AM

With due respect, TC, I'm not sure you understand how Arbitron works. For example:

"The most recent numbers represent mid April through mid May;"

- - -No, they represent February/March/April. That's why the top line reads: "F/M/A 04"

There is a delay, so monthly numbers are not released until almost a month later. The mail-time alone would prevent May numbers from being released this quickly.

So, the 1.3 number represents a slight uptick from their previous numbers. That could be explained in a number of different ways:
1: April was a good month.
2: January - the month they dropped - was a bad month.
3: Some combination of the two.

"The WFAN comparison vis-a-vis ad sales doesn't work for me."

- - -The point - which is quite valid - is that a station does not have to be highly ranked 12+ to generate strong revenue. Note that I do not claim Air America can or will generate the same revenue as WFAN...just that 12+ numbers are not necessarily indicative of revenue potential.

Posted by: Jon Henke at May 24, 2004 08:48 AM

Its technically possible for Air America to break even, but even so its not very likely. They are paying for airtime and from all accounts have little advertising revenue. 24th is not a good place to be when you need to pull in advertisers who consider your show a risk investment.

Posted by: MrAcheson at May 24, 2004 08:49 AM

I think you also have to wonder about the long term (or even short term) viability of a political radio network when they are ony marginally performing in an election year with Bush struggling in approval polls and a strong ABB sentiment. I've previously posted my doubts that they would last past the election, win or lose. I think the DNC will keep them afloat that long, just for the message.

Posted by: Norman at May 24, 2004 10:02 AM

I understand the way Arbitron works. I still am using 1.1 as my starting point to measure AAR's progress since WLIB was stuck on that number for over four quarters, representing somewhere along the lines of 350K regular listeners, so it's as good a starting point as any for my purposes.

I think they may manage to catch WOR, maybe even squeese past them, by the end of the summer. But that will be it. They'll never get any further, and the investors will quit pouring money in once Election Day has passed, no matter the election's result.

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguin at May 24, 2004 10:44 AM

I'm not sure you do, TC. For starters, you seem to think (per your first post) that the Arbitrends measure individual months, rather than three-month periods. Since they measure moving three month trends - and only one month that measures AA programming - we really have no idea how AA is doing.

The fact that they are trending up, despite (in all probability) dropping off some very good months (note that their Winter book included a sharp rise), indicates that they are doing reasonably well.

But we don't have enough information to know this. We don't have remotely enough information. How they will do in the future, past the election? I won't speculate. I just wanted to point out that the currently available numbers don't tell us what you seem to think they tell us.

Posted by: Jon Henke at May 24, 2004 11:35 AM

I think after the election Franken will bail out, no matter the election results. He's been floating the Minnesota Senate scenario. He's saying all the right things in interviews, but I don't think he's comfortable on radio. He belongs in front of a camera, not behind a microphone. It's his natural environment. Hell, half his shtick involves facial expressions!

If he bails out the whole thing dies.

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguin at May 24, 2004 06:36 PM

I suspect you may be right. I have no idea what Franken is like, but radio - done properly - is HARD. I wonder how long a non-radio person can keep it up.

I said once before that Air America can succeed - there certainly is a niche - but it will have to be a slow process. At the moment, they're heavy on celebrity, and light on people who know the craft of radio. Celebrity is a good way to get on the radar and get a name for themselves. If they are to succeed, though, they'll have to slowly transition to radio professionals.

I'm not sure where they'll come from, but I think they have a good 50/50 shot of making it.

Posted by: Jon Henke at May 24, 2004 07:50 PM