QandO

June 01, 2004

The Kerry Juggernaut
Posted by Dale Franks

OK, let's say you're a Democratic Presidential candidate. And let's say you're hoping to win big in November. So, if you see a Washington Post article like this about New Jersey, a traditionally Democratic State that Al Gore won in 2000 by 16%, will you feel good about your chances?

The results of a Quinnipiac University poll and random interviews in several Democratic strongholds in New Jersey suggest that plenty of voters, at least in this state, feel the same way. In what is arguably the most Democratic state in the nation -- where Vice President Al Gore beat Bush in 2000 by 16 points without breaking a sweat -- Kerry leads Bush in the New Jersey Quinnipiac poll by just 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent (with Ralph Nader at 5 percent), with a margin of error of 2.9 percent. That means a statistical dead heat in a state where Democrats control the state executive and legislature, U.S. Senate seats and most congressional district seats.

This comes at a time when the latest polls, including the Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed 1,122 New Jersey registered voters May 10 to 16, show the president's approval ratings have dropped to the lowest of his tenure. Significantly, unaffiliated or independent voters, who traditionally vote in much higher numbers for Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey, split 46 percent to 45 percent for Bush, or 41 percent to 41 percent in a three-way race with Nader, who polled at 13 percent.

I know it's very early and all, and a lot of voters aren't really paying close attention yet, but if you're a Democrat running a dead heat in NJ, then you've got to wonder what's up, don't you?

"The poll suggests that Kerry is not grabbing the independent voters the way Democrats usually do," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Hey, thanks for that blinding glimpse of the obvious, there, Clay. Glad you're around to help us out.

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