QandO

June 17, 2004

Speaking of Foreign Policy
Posted by McQ

I noted in a story a couple of days ago that China was an ascending star spreading its influence globally. While we prosecute the war on terror, we need to keep at least one eye on this asian collosus if we value our freedom.

The Weekly Standard carries a story this week written by Christian Lowe, a writer for the Army Times, in which Lowe outlines what China's been up too and where China's heading in his estimation. Its worth the read, if for no other reason than to update yourself concerning China's pending "superpower" status.

As the Chinese pragmatically reengineer their economy to maximize its potential, nothing has happened to change the focus or belief of its leadership in its own ideology. At some point, I believe, China will feel strong enough to challenge the US. The reason?

The Chinese military also sees the global war on terrorism in a larger context, with some reading American victories in the Middle East and Central Asia not as steps toward a lasting security, but rather as further solidifying a U.S. global hegemony.

As with all communist regimes, there's a healthy dose of paranoia present. They don't see our progress in the war on terror as helping them so much as encircling them.

"While seeing opportunities for cooperation with the United States emerging from the [global war on terrorism], China's leaders appear to have concluded that the net effect of the U.S.-led campaign has been further encirclement of China, specifically by placing U.S. military forces in Central Asia, strengthening U.S. defense relations with Pakistan, India, and Japan, and returning the U.S. military to Southeast Asia," the 2004 report states. "Although most Chinese observers believe the U.S. force posture post-September 11 is based on a legitimate need to prosecute the GWOT, many remain suspicious and have implied that the 'real' U.S. intentions behind the realignment will not be known until the GWOT is more or less over."

Of course stories like Bush declaring Pakistan to be one of our "major non-NATO" allies only throws gasoline on the paranoia bonfire.

The result?

China has increased defense spending over the last several years, more than 11 percent in 2004 to $25 billion--though the report admits the exact amount of Chinese defense expenditures remains a close-held state secret. Increased resources have gone toward the purchase of advanced Russian attack aircraft, accelerated space programs (including manned flight and intelligence satellites), and the deployment of ballistic and cruise missiles. Additionally, China has put an increased emphasis on coordinated command and control between the People's Liberation Army, People's Liberation Army Navy and People's Liberation Army Air Force, due in large part to lessons learned from the U.S.-British assault on Iraq last year.

The bottom line:

As America focuses increasingly on the Middle East and Central Asia and fights a tough war on terror, it is important to remember that China's military modernization continues apace. The potential for superpower competition in East Asia has not diminished, as these yearly reports show, nor has America's need to
keep abreast of the military progress of the communist nation in order to guard against any surprises.

As the report's authors note, "China's aspirations and efforts to achieve great power status have accelerated in recent years, especially the past two, as China's leaders have evinced a greater sense of confidence in the international arena," the report states. "Various Chinese observers have noted, for example, that U.S. focus on counterterrorism has reduced perceived U.S. 'pressure' on and 'containment' of China, opening opportunities to strengthen internal security and create a more favorable situation along the periphery."

China has an agenda ... and its all about China. And while, in real terms, we in the west have quite a technological edge over China at this point, that edge is narrowing ... and narrowing quickly. While the war on terrorism is important, it isn't so important that we can ignore China's swift climb toward superpower status or the potential threat that may be to world peace.

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