|Questions and Observations|
I have to agree with you Dale ... in reality, if Kerry had a chance, he ought to be up by double digits right now.
I've been saying for some time that Kerry has peaked. With all the negative media attention on Iraq and Abu Gharib, Kerry ought to be looking like a lock for the election. As it is, he can barely pull within a couple of points.
If, as Neal Cavuto claims, the public has a tendency to live 6 months in the past as concerns economic matters, they should be feeling pretty good about election time.
And, as Steverino points out, battleground states, at this juncture anyway, aren't looking real strong for Kerry ... and they should be.
Couple that all with the fact that everyday the Kerry campaign seems to lose another avenue of attack because of a better economy, housing numbers, etc. and you essentially have a "I'm not Bush" campaign. We all know those aren't effective.
So yes, its too early ... but in my estimation, and as I've pointed out in the past, Kerry is playing Bob Dole to Bush's Clinton.
Posted by: McQ at June 29, 2004 04:14 PM
Just as they've been trying to project our economic situation as being worse than the great depression.
And I expect them to have success in the former lie that is equal to the latter lie. Nobody will buy either one.
Posted by: bithead at June 29, 2004 04:27 PM
Good points, Dale. As you say, polls--especially this far out--should be taken with a fairly large silo of salt. Except for rough guidance (i.e., the candidates are relatively close), I generally discount them.
My impression that Bush's support is soft comes from what I read among conservatives and libertarians, most of whom think Bush is neither. Even The National Review has been wishy-washy in their support for Bush. (granted, they'll support him over Kerry every day of the week, but it's fairly obvious they're not big fans)
My impression--and that's all it is, at this point--is that Bush voters are just not highly motivated. Bush may win the polls all year, but if his voters stay home....their support won't translate from the polls to the one poll that matters.
Of course, I could be wrong. You make very good points.
Posted by: Jon Henke at June 30, 2004 05:49 AM
Academics Use Formulas to Predict Bush Win
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections President Bush (news - web sites) is on his way to a sizable win.
That's the conclusion of a handful of political scientists who, with mixed results, have honed the art of election forecasting by devising elaborate mathematical formulas based on key measures of the nation's economic health and the public's political views.
Still, the forecasters admit they are much more skeptical of their own forecasts than in 2000.
"It's an intellectual exercise, and I wouldn't bet the farm on these forecasts," Abramowitz said.
Posted by: dan at July 1, 2004 12:32 PM