July 06, 2004

Edwards
Posted by Jon Henke

It's Kerry/Edwards '04.

I'd remind you of what I wrote in September '03....

Here's the story:

"Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards of North Carolina said on Sunday he will not seek re-election to the Senate next year in order to concentrate on his bid for the White House."

Here's what it means:

John Edwards for Vice President.


Until now, I'd assumed that the Dems would go for Clark, or similar figure for VP, to counter the "weak on defense" argument. That is problematic, though, because Clark would not be much of a Presidential candidate in 8 years, and the VP is almost always given the "Next In Line" mantle.

John Edwards, on the other hand, is not a truly strong Presidential candidate right now....and he's having poll trouble in his home-state.

But, in 8 years, after holding the VP office, which basically involves not screwing up, not pissing anybody off and looking good......?

It looks like the Democrats may already be installing the wooden pegs in the neck of their next FrankenKennedy.

The Gephardt noise was just a feint, designed to lower expectations. Edwards is, and has been, the best choice Kerry could make. They will make a formidable campaign team.

UPDATE: So, the New York Post, huh? Snort. Either a reporter or a source....somebody's going to be burned.

UPDATED UPDATE: Steverino informs me the NYPost link is not working any longer. Apparently, they've gotten the memo. Well, you can see the Front Page of Infamy here.

UPDATE II: Spoons writes...

Politically, I think Edwards is an outstanding choice. Yeah, I know, everybody's going to say it doesn't matter, that no one votes for Veep, etc. & so forth. Still, I think the Veep choice has an atmospheric effect. Edwards could unstuffify Kerry a bit. I expect Edwards to be uncommonly visible, for a Veep candidate.
Absolutely right. People don't vote for the Veep, but he helps do that all-important "branding" thing that can make or break a candidate. Pick poorly, and your reputation is affected. Pick well....same. The voters will still vote for you, but their image of you is directly affected by the Brand you present....and the VP is part of that brand.

UPDATE III: Taegan Goddard...

The New York Times says Kerry "was preparing to call Mr. Edwards this morning as part of an elaborate roll-out plan that is to begin with an e-mail to supporters later this morning and a formal announcement by Mr. Kerry at a rally in Pittsburgh."
Yeah, that "advance notice" email for supporters really turned out to be valuable, didn't it?

UPDATE IV: Ezra Klein agrees with me--or, I with him-- on the Gephardt noise, writing that "after having to grapple with Gephardt and Vilsack for the past few weeks, my excitement has ratcheted up to unheard of heights. Edwards is now messianic to me, having seen his star rise as Gephardt's became more tangible."

That Ezra is a brilliant thinker, when he and I agree.


UPDATE V: Joe Gandelman - of the recently blogrolled, and excellent, The Moderate Voice - takes note of some very credible and interesting observations by Larry Sabato.

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