July 06, 2004

And, in the on deck circle...
Posted by Dale Franks

The senior member of the Axis of Evil, Iran, has apparently been up to no good.

American and Iraqi joint patrols, along with U.S. Special Operations teams, captured two men with explosives in Baghdad on Monday who identified themselves as Iranian intelligence officers, FOX News has confirmed.

Senior officials said it was previously believed that Iran had officers inside Iraq stirring up violence, but this is the first time that self-proclaimed Iranian intelligence agents have been captured within the country.

The Defense officials also confirmed to FOX News that in recent days there has been significant success in tracking down "known bad guys" based on information from local citizens. While those captured aren't from the list of former regime members or from terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's network, they are "active" bombers and organizers of recent violence.

The arrest of the two Iranians suspected of attempting to carry out a vehicle bombing has focused new attention on how Tehran is trying to protect its interests in the country it fought for eight years in a devastating war.

Actually, it's the Mullahs who are trying to protect their interests, said interests mainly being to try to prevent their own populations from noticing improvements in Iraq that might encourage them from overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

I doubt the people of Iran have much to fear from a free and democratic Iraq. In fact, it appears quite the reverse.

The Mullahs have to be nervous. A liberated Afghanistan on their eastern border and a liberated Iraq on their west. I wonder if they can feel the noose tightening.

This is, by the way, a major development. And it makes Iran look like the country to receive the...uh...uncomfortable scrutiny of the Bush Administration.

I'd say they have until November 3rd to start cleaning up their act.

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A few questions
1) What would be some of the possible military strategies in a potential-regime change of Iran?
2) How many troops would it require?
3) Where would they pulled from?
4) Would Kerry, if elected President, support such action in the event of further Iranian non-compliance on the nuke issue?
5) Assuming yes to (4) Would some more of our european "allies" support Kerry, since Bush would be out of the White house?

Posted by: Elliot Fladen at July 6, 2004 09:21 PM

All very good questions, Elliot. I'm going to give you my answers, and maybe McQ will chime in as well. Unfortunately, it's about bedtime, so, you'll have to wait until tomorrow.

Posted by: Dale Franks at July 6, 2004 10:41 PM

You're kidding me, right? Military action in Iran? After the basic slam-dunk case for military action in Iraq met with such political opposition - which has grown (outside of Iraq) since the military victory? You think Kerry would ask for / authorize any open military action in Iran? You think Bush would? I don't. Nope, I'm thinking the remaining parts of the axis of evil will have free reign to do just about anything they want, so long as they retain even a tiny amount of plausible deniability.

It's going to take another Sept 11 before we openly take on the rest of the A of E. Meanwhile, while we sit waiting for European blessing (ha ha ha ha ha ha), the Islamists lick their wounds, get new funding, new training sites, new apologists, and look for all those missing WMDs.

No, I think the future looks very very bleak. Lots of "diplomacy" (including the requisite corruption) while the situation becomes hopelessly worse.

Posted by: W at July 7, 2004 08:06 AM