QandO

July 27, 2004

Welcome to the Machine
Posted by Jon Henke

It looks like Paul Krugman reads WashingtonMonthly, but does not read QandO. This is unfortunate--though, not entirely surprising--as he repeats the recent "felon list" canard propogated by, inter alia, WashingtonMonthly. Krugman writes...

This year, Florida again hired a private company ... to prepare a felon list. Remembering 2000, journalists sought copies. State officials stonewalled, but a judge eventually ordered the list released.

The Miami Herald quickly discovered that 2,100 citizens who had been granted clemency, restoring their voting rights, were nonetheless on the banned-voter list. Then The Sarasota Herald-Tribune discovered that only 61 of more than 47,000 supposed felons were Hispanic. So the list would have wrongly disenfranchised many legitimate African-American voters, while wrongly enfranchising many Hispanic felons. It escaped nobody's attention that in Florida, Hispanic voters tend to support Republicans.

1. The list would not have "wrongly disenfranchised many legitimate African-American voters". This was a list of "potentials", and counties were supposed to "verify the information" and "contact the voters" prior to taking any action. The list itself--and the State's orders--could not disenfranchise voters. Only a failure to follow those orders could result in improper disenfranchisement. That is a rather important difference.
2. "Hispanic voters tend to support Republicans".....is not quite correct.
   

   Hispanics favored Kerry 45 percent to 34 percent...

   In fact, the only reason the vote is close is the Miami-based Cuban Americans vote, which goes about 80% Republican. Outside of that very narrow locale, the Hispanic vote goes to Kerry by a wide margin, and the felon list in question does not simply leave off the Cuban Hispanics, which could create an electoral advantage for Bush. It excludes anybody who self-idenitifies as a Hispanic.

"But", Krugman might respond, "a recent Herald/Zogby International Hispanic Poll found 'Bush at 57 percent among Hispanics in Florida, with Kerry at 38 percent'!"

Indeed. And if that's the evidence he'd cite, I'd suggest he use better methodology....

"The margin of error for the size of the sample is in the double digits..."

As far as the insecurity of voting machines goes, Paul Krugman makes a good point, and his advice should be heeded. But the Florida felon list is hardly the evidence of malfeasance he'd have you believe.

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