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July 30, 2004 The Convention Bounce I'm not usually one who cares too much about polls, except as a snapshot of general sentiment, however, Zogby's new poll shows a convention bounce of marginal proportions. The polling was done on 26-29 July, so it doesn't include the reaction to Kerry's speech from last night. But the results can't be heartening for Democrats.
Essentially, as of Thursday afternoon, the convention "bounce" moved three percent of Bush voters to the undecided category, while adding nothing to Kerrys. Compare that to the 17-point lead that Michael Dukakis had when he walked out of the Democratic Convention in '88. Jon thinks, as he wrote earlier today, that it looks like Kerry's gonna win. I couldn't disagree more. First, as far away as the election is, it's impossible to say with any real accuracy who is going to win. There's a couple of months of campaigning still to go. Second, I think that Kerry's record has such substantial negatives--negatives which the voters haven't even begun to look at--that any prediction of a win is problematic. Kerry can roll out his "Band of Brothers", for example, but I expect the guys at SwiftVets will also be rolling out the other 80% of Kerry's "brothers" who don't think he's fit to be Commander in Chief. And, for all the talk about the "Bush attack machine" the president hasn't even begun campaigning yet. If, on 1 Nov, the polls are still showing a dead heat, then maybe then we can say that Bush is in trouble. But at this point, the race is still Bush's to lose. In August of 1988, the Democrats thought they had a sure-fire winner in Mike Dukakis. By October, they were wondering what had possessed them to nominate this obvious loser. I think there's every chance that could happen again this year. The Dems are leaving Boston talking about a landslide. They might very well be right, and the election will end in a landlside. But, barring unforseen events, it might not be the landslide they expect. |
It's entirely possible you're right. I'm certainly no sage guage of elections (hey, I thought Clark would get the Dems nod), but I keep coming back to the fact that--as far as I can see--the Democrats base is motivated. And the Bush base seems...less so. Even the National Review can't muster much enthusiasm for Bush.
Even leaving the swing voters aside, I'm wondering how the sheer issue of the motivation of voter bases is going to affect this thing, and it doesn't seem to be working in favor of Bush.
Posted by: Jon Henke at July 30, 2004 11:07 AM
Sure, the Dem base is motivated, but by what? Hatred of Bush.
The conservate base of the Republican Party might not be motivated right now, but trust me, if starts to look like Kerry might win, they'll get motivated pretty damned quick! Not by their love of W., but by their intense dislike for Kerry.
bob
Posted by: bob at July 30, 2004 11:15 AM