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August 08, 2004
Weekly QandO roundup
Posted by McQ
Some of the posts you may have missed from this past week. Click the button to read an excerpt....or just follow the link to read the whole thing.
National Sales Tax: Its not all Fuzzy Kitties: (Dale Franks) - a great discussion of both the advantages and disadvantages of a national sales tax. Also includes some great comments and questions from readers.
I would love to have the income tax abolished. And I love the idea even though I suspect that, in terms of the tax I pay, switching over to such a system would give me a right pranging. Getting the IRS out of the business of auditing individual citizens is a good thing. It is always a good thing to keep the government from nosing around in the lives of its citizens.
But it's a bit dishonest to expect that there aren't some serious issues that have to be addressed when you talk about a switchover to something like the Fair Tax, which is, as of now, the only fully fleshed-out proposal on the table.
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Mimsy were the Euro-goves: (Jon Henke) - John Kerry gets mixed reviews from his strongest voter base .....Europe. A look at how Europe viewed the John Kerry acceptance speech along with a lively discussion among QandO readers.
"The speech was music to European ears because of the attacks on Bush," said Justin Vaïsse, a French historian. "It put the blame where many Europeans see the blame, at the door of the Bush administration."
From the perspective of a European, this makes perfect sense, of course. After all, who doesn't want more of a say in the world? It has been a historic fact-of-life that France engages in balance of power politics the way children play parents against each other....not out of any overarching moral principle, but as a utilitarian cost/benefit game.
Of course, not all Europeans are satisfied with John Kerry. For some, nothing less than a European Veto will solve the US problem...
Noting the line in Mr. Kerry's speech about not needing a green light from abroad before taking actions to defend its interests, Mr. Vaïsse said: "In France, they don't have overblown expectations. Kerry would be like the second Clinton administration, not as arrogant and unilateral as Bush, but it would be no multilateral paradise either."
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"Europeans are surprised to hear that John Kerry is talking about America the same way as George W. Bush does," the paper said. "They are amazed that at the Democratic Convention in Boston, he saluted like a soldier, one hand up at his temple. They would prefer not to hear it when Kerry promises that he would never hesitate to use force in case America is under threat. They are disappointed."
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Convention bounces or the lack thereof: (McQ) Two articles which delve into the thinking and theories as to why convention bounces in the polls are missing in this election year.
Kerry's McGovern Bounce - discusses the theories presented as to why Kerry saw no convention bounce.
Despite those in the media who have claimed Kerry hit a homerun with his speech, I'm of the opinion that he just didn't meet the expectations of his base or the undecided. He didn't sell himself and his ability to do better when that was his theme. Its not good enough to repetitiously repeat "we can do better and help is on the way" unless you can clearly outline how you'll do it better and what help is on the way.
Zogby: No Convention Bounce for Bush Either - discusses a well known pollster's theory as to why Bush is destined to suffer no bounce after the Republican convention as well:
Zogby uses a lot of "history" to support his position and his poll. I'm still not buying though. I'm still not convinced that everyone but about 5% who are going to vote have a) tuned in to this and b) have made up their mind. Because of Zogby's early prediction, I'm more inclined to discount his reasoning and wonder if the polls are now being made to fit the prediction. His sort of reasoning would certainly do that.
Obviously I could be completely wrong and Zogby may have it wired. The one true indicator, in my estimation, will be what happens to the numbers coming out of the Republican Convention. Flat "dead-cat" bounce like Kerry ... I may have to concede Zogby may be right. But any surge in the polls of any significance should have Zogby, et. al., relooking and rethinking their theory of the minute percentage of the undecided.
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Its All About Jobs (Dale Franks) - explains the impending BLS numbers concerning job creation, how to read them and their impact.
The big release so for this week has been the Institute for Supply Management's ISM Index. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing releases of the ISM Index showed higher than expected strength in the economy. What the ISM reports did not show, however, was an equally strong pickup in hiring.
The employment component of the ISM dropped sharply to 50 from the previous month's 57.4. In general, an ISM score above 50 indicates growth, so a perfectly neutral 50 is not a precursor of rapidly expanding hiring. And, even with a June employment index of 57.4, the non-farm payrolls number was a paltry 112,000. So, the ISM has to be taken as a warning sign.
32K? A Measly 32K? (Dale Franks) - is the followup to his "Its All About Jobs" article. It seems his warnings were well founded.
As I wrote yesterday, I was nervous about today's employment release. I thought I was being pessimistic, but even I wasn't this pessimistic. Yesterday, I said anything over 200k would be a blessing. I should've said 50,000. The ISM survey's employment index really jolted me, when I saw the employment index decline to 50 from 57, as 50 essentially means no job growth at all. 50 is the neutral number on the ISM index. And, neutral job growth is precisely what we got.
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The Dangerous Rush to Intelligence Reform (McQ) discusses what such a reform entails and questions, given the difficulties and importance in accomplishing the reform, the rush to do so.
The intelligence problem is one which has to be addressed, no question. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who will argue with you about that. Essentially the task is to take an intelligence apparatus which was focused and structured to contend with the Cold War and the Soviet Union and completely refocus it on the threat of terrorism, fundamental Islam and all that entails.
Not an easy task. And certainly not one which should be rushed into.
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QandO commented extensively at the controversy surrounding the differing claims made by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and John Kerry concerning his service in Vietnam:
Band of Brothers (Dale Franks) - Introduced QandO readers to the controversial Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's (SBVT) ad.
Kerry Better Be Careful (McQ) - thoughts about how Kerry might respond to the SBVT claims:
McCain Weighs in on Swift Boat Vets Ad (McQ) and Swift Vet Ad Continued (Dale Franks) both comment on Sen. McCains comments concerning the ad.
Chapter 3 of "Unfit to Command" (McQ) provides a chapter from a soon to be released book by John O'Niell concerning Kerry's service in Vietnam.
...And, here come the Lawyers (Dale Franks) covers the Kerry campaign's reaction to the SWVT ad. Apparently the SWVT aren't the only group that gets this treatment.
The LA Times is Just Flat Wrong (McQ) disputes the LA Times position that Kerry's VN service is unassailable.
Fact Checking FactCheck.org (McQ) disputes the "factual analysis" of the SBVT's ad released by the usually reliable FactCheck.org
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I Now Pronounce You Husband and...er...Husband (Dale Franks) - a discussion of the dangers of judicial activism.
The proper place to handle emerging awarenesses is the legislature, not the judiciary. If the judiciary's job is to do that, then we might as well just disband the legislatures, and let unelected judges run the show. Because, in practice, that's exactly what the system will become, and it's foolish to pretend otherwise.
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