August 30, 2004

Elections Futures
Posted by Dale Franks

The election is a long time away, and, of course, anything can happen. But take a look at the Sunday closing prices for the Presidential election from the futures markets from Tradesports, based on the closing Sunday prices1:

Bush.....58.0
Kerry....42.6

That can't be good news for the Kerry campaign. I don't think the polls are accurately reflecting the outcome of the election. I think, all other things being equal, Bush is headed for a landslide. And, evidently, people who are putting their money where their mouth is are thinking the same thing.
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1 I'm writing this at 22:28 PDT, but, because this is an East Coast blog, it will appear as an 30 Aug 04 Entry.

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Comments

Someone needs to point out to Kerry that there will be no purple heart awarded for a self-inflicted loss of a Presidential Election.

Posted by: David March, animator & fiddler at August 30, 2004 05:00 AM

Right now Bush has nowhere to go but up in the short term. He's having his convention and he hopefully learned from the Democrat's mistakes in theirs. Maybe people will actually watch.

Kerry can still make a comeback if he wins the debates though. Its a big "if" considering all Bush needs to do is use the same strategy he employed against Gore.

Posted by: Jeff the Baptist at August 30, 2004 08:27 AM

Even if you take the polls as truly reflective of how people will vote, Kerry going into the Republican convention is no better off than he was going into the Democratic convention. In some ways, he's even worse off.

Posted by: Steverino at August 30, 2004 08:35 AM

If Bush nails his speech, he'll be in command- barring outside factors such as an attack or something in Iraq

Posted by: shark at August 30, 2004 09:01 AM

I've been predicting a Bush landslide for a couple of months.

Of course it my idea that the country isn't full of fucking nutbags rests on this to happen.

and the hope of country not getting torn apart by this lunacy. I think the liberal wacho nut bags are a vocal minority.

Posted by: Greg at August 30, 2004 01:20 PM