QandO

September 02, 2004

"How to beat Bush" ... they hope.
Posted by McQ

Donna Brazile, Al Gore's campaign manager has an article out in Newsweek which carries the above title. In it, Brazile lists four things Kerry/Edwards need to do to win the White House.

Before I get into those, I did notice something which seems to buck the "conventional wisdom" of the left. Brazile says :

It’s hard to travel across the country these days without seeing an old familiar bumper sticker: “Somewhere in Texas, a village is missing its idiot.” Perhaps the slogan rang true for many progressive voters in this highly partisan, highly charged and highly polarized electorate. But, if the bumper-sticker crowd believes it refers to George W. Bush, they are sorely mistaken.

Sen. John Kerry can win this election by understanding that he is running against a shrewd, clever and an extremely intelligent opponent who was trained in political combat by the late GOP strategist Lee Atwater.

She knows how "shrewd, clever and extremely intelligent" Bush is as she was on the other end of it in 2000. So she gives fair warning to the Democrats that they shouldn't delude themselves into thinking that old dumb George is running against them. This is the guy who took down Ma Richards in Texas and then defeated an incumbent party in peace-time in 2000. You don't do that by being the village idiot.

She laments, of course, the attacks on Gore and the attacks on Kerry:

Four years ago, I personally witnessed the relentless attacks on former Vice President Gore’s character from third-party surrogates with loose, but ideologically significant ties to the Bush campaign. After having a high-energy and well-defined convention where Kerry was introduced as a decorated war hero he was forced to play defense by a group of former Vietnam veterans vehemently opposed to his candidacy. As the challenger, Kerry had to personally respond to these scurrilous attacks on his character with the hopes of setting the record straight before November.

Scurrilous, I tell you, scurrilous. Of course refutation of these scurrilous attacks haven't at all been forth coming, but attempts to kill the messanger certainly have. Note though that part of her lamentation is tied to "third-party surrogates with loose, but ideologically significant ties to the Bush campaign."

Damn those surrogates ... well except when the Dems need them.

Which brings us to Brazile's point one: The message matters.

OK, I agree. She tells the Kerry campaign her opinion on how that's to be done and its pretty much political boilerplate advice. A positive, consistent message voters can identify with. Like I say nothing earth shaking.

But then Brazile can't resist getting into how to do a little "negative messaging". In fact its very easy if you listen to her:

The Kerry-Edwards ticket needs to find the one, overarching negative message about Bush that you want voters to hear time and time again. Why not say, “President Bush can't be trusted, is too extreme, etc.”? Team Kerry must get up every day and put in place events, developments, news, surrogates that drive the negative message.

What's that you say, Donna ... use "surrogates" to drive the negative message home? Squeal when the "surrogates" with barely any affiliation are arrayed against you and then tell Kerry to set up events, developments and news which his surrogates can "drive" home? And you can bet those surrogates will have more than "loose but significant" ties to Kerry.

Rule Number two: Minimize Mistakes

In an election this close, the candidate who wins may be the one who makes the fewest mistakes. In the fall, a one-day July story becomes a one-week October story when more voters are paying close attention. Back in 2000, we made some significant errors in the final weeks that either slowed our momentum or placed us on the defense.

Nothing earth shaking here. In fact, again, pretty common sense stuff. Execution is the key. For instance a huge mistake is letting your opponent define you instead of you defining yourself. Kerry's already made that mistake. He may not be able to recover. But I understand that Kerry plans on addressing George Bush's convention speech with a midnight press conference this evening. It remains to be seen as to whether that's really the smart thing to do, but I do see it as an attempt to disallow further definition of Kerry by Republicans.

Rule Three: Use Candidate Time Wisely

Recognize that nothing makes up for quality candidate appearances and events. Kerry must get to know those voters and what they care about in the so-called battleground states. The local events should highlight Kerry’s national message and tailored to the markets he’s trying to carry on Election Day.

To this point, I'd say in the race to use candidate time wisely, the Republicans have a huge edge. And that is a result of the power of the incumbency. There's no doubt that a challenger has a tremendous disadvantage when running against an incumbent. So this is probably one of the more important rules for Kerry. Based on August, I'd rate him as doing poorly as concerns this rule.

Rule Four: Debates

Don't approach these crucial presidential debates like they are a Harvard-Yale Society debate. This will serve as Kerry’s chance to show voters who he is as a person. They will want to be comfortable with him. Kerry must come across like a next-door neighbor who is respected on the block. Smile. Lots of smiles and absolutely no narrowing of the eyes, sighs or glancing at his watch.

In other words, don't pull an Al Gore. Look these debates are debates in name only. Essentially they're more like mutual press conferences. But they do allow each side to have their say and for a direct comparison of the two sides on issues. That is their value. I see little to be won or lost in debates this time around barring a huge gaffe by one or the other candidates. And I don't think that will happen. If you hear, as I expect, both sides claiming victory, then it most likely was a draw and in a draw I believe Bush wins.

So there they are. Again, really nothing that significant in terms of a brilliant campaign strategy, but common sense advice that if followed and executed provide the possibility of giving a candidate the edge. Campaigning 101.

But with rumbles coming from the Kerry camp about dissatisfaction within the campaign and a possible staff shakeups, one has to wonder if they can avoid a failing grade.

Brazile then concludes with a little whistling past the graveyard.

The bottom line is Kerry should feel, look and act like a winner. Voters respond to confidence, just look at Bush and why the race is still narrowly tied. All the traditional political indicators continue to point to a Kerry win in November—the percentage of registered voters who say they will re-elect the president is still low, the right track-wrong track number favors Kerry. And there is one simple truth no one will dispute: Democrats fiercely want to send George W. Bush back to Crawford, Texas.

I'm not sure which traditional political indicators she's invoking but from what I've seen and am seeing, they must have changed since she wrote this piece. And if she's relying on polls at this stage to claim victory is foregone, she's may be the person for which that village in Texas is looking.

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