QandO
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September 03, 2004 And I heard the number of those who were employed... Well, the jobs report, while not actually bad, wasn't quite a ray of sunshine, either... The U.S. job market brightened modestly in August as employers added 144,000 workers to their payrolls and hiring totals for the two prior months were revised up, the Labor Department reported on Friday."So altogether, not stellar but a solid report", as one economist said.' It's neither weak enough, nor strong enough, to be used effectively by either candidate. I am reading things like this, though, in a number of places... 144,000 increase in payroll employment in August, just enough to keep us from losing ground relative to the growing labor force.Except, that's not quite true. Contrary to Professor DeLong's assertion, the "growing labor force" actually declined last month by 152,000. (perhaps economists have a different definition of "growing") In fact, the oft-repeated claim that we need at least 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep up with growth in the labor force doesn't seem to be holding true, either. Since January 2001--per BLS data--it seems the Civilian Labor Force Level has only grown by ~89,022 per month....far below the ~150,000 goalpost being set. 2001 -- 143,787,000So, let's not pretend that this 144,000 number represents a bare accomodation of the labor force. It's forward momentum, though--obviously--not as much as we'd like.
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Isn't there still some question about how much the labor force is "growing" via birthrate versus illegal immigration?
I mean, if we chose, how much could we reduce the workforce by tightening the borders and deporting some workers? (Not advocating this, mind.) I'm questioning the source of the growth, and wondering how much control the gov't has over it. If birthrates (18 years ago) dominate the growth in labor pool, then the gov't has little control. But if immigration dominates, then the gov't has a great deal of control, yes?
Similarly, the US gov't might weaken the demand for illegal workers by raising the immigration quotas for legal workers -- perhaps from nations other than Mexico. If more Thais, Liberians, or Malyas were admitted, legally, then the demand for illegal workers might decline ...
Posted by: Pouncer at September 3, 2004 11:36 AM
If non-farm payrolls were up 144,000 over the previous month, but the previous month's total was 59,000 higher than thought (because of upward revisions): would non-farm payrolls actually be up 203,000 versus the 150,000 that were expectated?
Posted by: Tim Shell at September 3, 2004 02:11 PM