QandO

September 03, 2004

This is what we call a "bounce"
Posted by Dale Franks

According to the new Time magazine poll, George W. Bush has opened up an 11-point lead on John Kerry.

New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6.

That's about what one expects from a convention bounce, and it's interesting that Mr. Bush got one, while Mr. Kerry didn't.

There are three general signs that a campaign is getting desperate:

1. Reorganizing the campaign's staff.
2. Challenging the opponent to weekly debates.
3. Declaring that the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

So far, the Kerry campaign has, in the past week, completed tasks 1 and 2. so that's not a good sign that they think things are going swimmingly.

Still, their partisans, like Michael Moore, remain optimistic.

Kerry supporters and Bush-bashers should not despair. These Republicans have not made a permanent dent in Kerry's armor. The only person who can do that is John Kerry. And by coming out swinging as he did just minutes after Bush finished his speech Thursday night, Kerry proved he knows that the only way to win this fight is to fight — and fight hard.

He must realize that he faces Al Gore's fate only if he fails to stand up like the hero he is, only if he sits on the fence and keeps justifying his vote for the Iraq war instead of just saying, "Look, I was for it just like 70% of America until we learned the truth, and now I'm against it, like the majority of Americans are now."

Kerry needs to trust that his victory is only going to happen by inspiring the natural base of the Democratic Party — blacks, working people, women, the poor and young people. Women and people of color make up 62% of this country. That's a big majority. Give them a reason to come out on Nov. 2.

Unfortunately for Mr. Moore's electoral calculations, married women are pretty much equally divided. Married women with children are firmly in the Bush camp. The Gender Gap in favor of Kerry, such as it is, consists almost entirely of unmarried women, who, as it happens, tend to be women who do not vote. Married women, on the other hand, do.

I'm not sure Mr. Moore really wants women, per se, to come out an vote on November 2nd. If they do, I suspect the results will not be exactly what Mr. Moore expects.

And by coming out swinging as he did just minutes after Bush finished his speech Thursday night, Kerry proved he knows that the only way to win this fight is to fight — and fight hard.

Either that, or it proves that he's so thin-skinned about any criticism that he just declares it all to attacks on his "patriotism". One wonders what Mr. Kerry can be criticized for, if criticism of his sentate voting records and policy statements cannot be allowed. In fact, after his performance last night, I'll bet a lot of people are wondering that.

It does prove Mr. Moore right about one thing though: John Kerry can permanently dent his own armor.

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