QandO

September 04, 2004

Bouncy Newsweek poll
Posted by McQ

Again the disclaimer: Its early.

From Newsweek:

Immediately following the Republican National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a 13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research Center.

So Newsweek is claiming a 13 point bounce.

The details:

And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.

Bush up on job approval and has a slight majority who want him re-elected.

In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs. 42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%).

In all cases, leadership, honesty, trust, values, likability, Bush takes a strong lead.

In addition, more registered voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq (55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49% vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare, including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).

Bush thumps Kerry on terrorism, homeland security, Iraq, foreign policy, and taxes. He has a good lead in education, gay marriage and the economy. Kerry's holds a slim lead on healthcare and a large lead on the environment.

Hmmm .... not good news for Kerry.

Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote. Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11 percent say the situation in Iraq. On that subject, a majority of registered voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer from terrorism (45% think it has). And, among registered voters, 44 percent think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it was).

The top issues as identified by those polled included Terrorism/Homeland security (28%), economy (21%), healthcare (13%), Iraq (11%)

In all but healthcare, Bush holds a lead. If you recal the TIME poll, those polled there identified the top issues as:

25% of registered voters cited the economy as the top issue, followed by 24% who cited the war on terrorism as the top issue. The situation in Iraq was rated the top issue by 17% of registered voters, moral values issues such as gay marriage and abortion were the top issue for 16% of respondents, and health care was the most important issue for 11% of respondents.

So the two polls track pretty closely with terrorism/homeland secuirty and the economy swapping the top spots in the Newsweek poll.

As to the presidential candidates' military service, though 75 percent of registered voters say what they've seen or heard about Bush's military service will not have much effect on their vote, and 62 percent say the same about Kerry's military service in Vietnam, 75 percent of registered voters have seen or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a veterans' group questioning Kerry's military record. And 21 percent say those ads are generally accurate. Thirty-nine percent say they are misleading or distorted. Only 25 percent are not aware of those ads. Twenty-seven percent of registered voters think the Bush/Cheney campaign is behind the ads, while 38 percent think they were produced independently. (However, 26 percent of military households who have seen or heard about John Kerry's military record say they are less likely to vote for him).

Note the last line. Unless he wants to increase this percentage, Kerry needs to invoke the rule of holes: when you're in one quit digging. My guess is he won't.

And as an interesting preview of possible things to come?

Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, a majority of registered voters (50%) said they would like to see former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani run for president in 2008 (65% of Republicans), followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain (48%, 47% of Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (22%, 30% of Republicans), if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born U.S. citizens to run.

Interesting.

Bottom line: Newsweek shows more of a bounce than TIME because it was concluded the day after the convention, however it tracks very closely with the TIME poll, which give the numbers and percentages some credibility and show that John Kerry has 2 months to get out of the hole.

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