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September 04, 2004 "The smell of panic is in the air" Now that quote may be a little hyperbolic, but, per the article, it was the assessment of a "Democratic strategist" on the release of the TIME poll. As Debra Orin in the NY Post relates: Democrats were reaching for the panic button yesterday amid growing fears that John Kerry is blowing the 2004 race — while President Bush basked in the glow of a successful New York convention. Any honest person would have to admit, an 11 to 13 point bounce probably did invoke a little panic over in Kerryland since everyone, and I mean everyone (well except me), was convinced there just weren't enough uncommitted voters to give anyone a bounce. Remember? So what the hell happened? Well first of all the pundits, pontificators and political experts were wrong. Like I've mentioned before, people really don't start paying attention until, well, right about now. And even now you're probably only talking 80 to 85% of those who'll vote. The other 15 - 20% will begin paying more attention around the time of the debates. But clearly, if you consider the two latest polls from TIME and Newsweek, either something has happened or they're just now finally getting to see how this election is truely shaping up. Either way, a bit of panic on the Kerry side may be warranted. A few thoughts and possibilities. A) Kerry's support has always been soft. It may not have been "Anybody But Bush". It may have been "Anybody But Bush, Except For That Guy ... Eewww". Now that America is getting a look at Kerry, Bush doesn't seem so bad. Obviously the screaming, hissing, snapping, and snarling 10% who are true Bush haters don't count ... ABB works for them. But then they'd vote for any Democrat anyway. B) Based on the top issue in the polls, terrorism and homeland security, the threat is well recognized and important to voters. People have a tendency when threatened to go with what they know, instead of changing horses in midstream. As Bush said, voters know where he stands on this issue and apparently, for a great many of them, that stand works for them. C) August was an awful month for Kerry. Even his campaign admitted that. Questions about his medals, questions about his service in Vietnam, Swift Boat Vets, questions about his anti-war activites. And they haven't even gotten to his Senate record yet. Kerry's answer to all of this? Threatened lawsuits, intimidation tactics, lawyer letters, Dem talking heads (Carville, Davis, Matthews) making screaming fools of themselves. Not the image and or activites which are likely to impress undecided voters. D) Voters are taking stock in the intangibles - leadership, trust, honesty, values and likability - and Kerry is coming out on the short end of the stick. In the last 20 years his leadership has virtually been zero, he's just not a very likeable person, and his honesty and trust have been damaged by his apparent flip flopping on issues. Voting against the $87 billion for the troops didn't help either. Not a good sign for Kerry. E) Vietnam has mortally wounded him. He may get another Purple Heart if this keeps up. I caught Democrat strategist Pat Caudell on Fox last night and he kept saying "why is this man still talking about Vietnam?! He should have put that behind him and moved on. Its a loser for him. Start talking about the issues." The Republican strategist just sat there with a smug smile. Kerry had two great chances to put that behind him at the VFW and American Legion conventions. Apologize for your anti-war past and make nice with your "band of brothers" who you once called "irrelevant". Instead he chose to lecture and attack. Guess who still have no use for him? Yup, the VFW, American Legion and most of the veteran's community. Dumb politics based on false pride. Add this little thursday night screech fest and September looks no better than August for Kerry. Yup, I guess if you're honest, you can catch a little whiff of panic in the air. |
This is something new for Kerry. He has spent his entire career in the comfortable bosom of the Massachusetts Democratic machine. He has never faced a hard political fight. He just rode his tricycle into the middle of a motorcycle gang.
Posted by: Fred Boness at September 4, 2004 10:42 PM
Just a thought, but can you imagine if Dukakis had actually won and us having to live through 8 years of "Dukakinomics"?
I think the panic started about 2 weeks after it was pretty sure Kerry was going to be the one. I don't think most Dems expected that. There was a collective "uh oh" about then and they have been just scrambling since.
Panic might be the right word - but I think it is more dismay that people don't actually think like they do. Especially since the media has been telling us Kerry is the voice of the Dem party and is the mainstream and such. Folks are getting a wake-up call all-right. Wake up because most people think you dems are wacked to support this guy.
Posted by: Joel (No Pundit Intended) at September 4, 2004 11:20 PM
Panic? This is full blown pants crapping.
Kerry and Company NEVER- in their greatest nightmares- imagined being here. They were sooooooo confident that the public would vote for anybody over Bush. The trouble is that anybody isn't running, John Kerry is.
They misread the mood of the public badly. Given a palatable choice, the electorate might very well have (and may still choose to) dump Bush. But they decided the best way to win was to give us very little. And that's just not good enough.
Nobody to blame but themselves if they lose.
Posted by: shark at September 4, 2004 11:37 PM
This campaign will clearly be studied for a long time (like Waterloo). As to the rest of the campaign, Kerry's run out of most of his attractive options by being stuck in Vietnam. As you say, he still isn't through the antiwar years, or even started on his Senate record. Finally the big domestic issues are complicated, and he doesn't have a lot of time to flesh out a positive Kerry platform. He may be left with 'Not Bush' by default, and I think moderate voters (and most undecideds) are sick of that by now.
Posted by: Dave Sheridan at September 5, 2004 04:36 AM
He really is stuck. He can't put the Swifties behind him because to do so he would have to not only offer a sincere apology, he still has to answer the questions about his service. Now that the Inspector General is looking into the medals morass, it won't go away for a while yet. He made this bed, and it sure ain't no bed of roses.
Posted by: EddieP at September 5, 2004 07:58 AM
Yeah, well let's hope the net reaches more people than the Kerry campaign hopes it does for things like the medal investigation and the
truth about Barnes having something to do with the Kerry campaign.
I notice the mainstream media has long since stopped discussing old Sandy Hamburger and his attempt to impress John and company by stuffing his shorts with documents from the National Archives. And the AP "boo" story was an eye-blink.
I do see that we're still busily investigating the "jews are spying on us" story though and I keep expecting the NYT to start another barrage of Abu Gharib.
Posted by: looker at September 5, 2004 08:12 AM
Front Page Chicago Tribune 22 Feb 04 just above the fold to the right.
Vet Group Questions Kerry. It was about '71. Kerry and the Dems decided not to confront it then. They get to confront it now.
Whooop eeee.
Posted by: M. Simon at September 5, 2004 12:08 PM
If I may quibble with a small point:
"Obviously the screaming, hissing, snapping, and snarling 10% who are true Bush haters don't count ... ABB works for them. But then they'd vote for any Democrat anyway."
I think it is closer to about 20%. Something like 36-40% of the country is registered Democrat, and it seems that at least a simple (but slim) majority of them are raving moonbats. The rest are regular people who have not taken the time to really understand what their party has become, familiar with the soothing platitudes of Rather, Jennings and Brokaw, just like my own parents and every single one of their friends.
Lots and lots of these people (who are just like my parents) are going to find out more about Kerry in the next couple of months. They are not going to like what they see.
Forty states, minimum, for Bush.
Posted by: themarkman at September 5, 2004 04:01 PM
He should have slept with Hillary, instead of Terry McCauliff......
Posted by: ed at September 12, 2004 01:15 AM
The questions now are
(a)What kind of coffin be used to barry Senator Johns(I mean both Kerry and Edward)
(b) The same apply to Dan Rather, Matt, Katie Couri, Tom, Christ Matthews...and many other mainstream media new anchors who bash, smear,not tell the truth to America...or have not done their jobs right as professional journalists. For these guys should wake yourself up. Another thing, as national news anchors,please don't think most American are idiots.
Posted by: a at September 12, 2004 01:26 PM